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notageek
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 3:21 pm    Post subject: Amanda Knox was acquitted on bad maths. Reply with quote

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22310186

Quote:
But the DNA sample was tiny, and the appeal judge thought the evidence was unreliable, so he rejected a forensic scientist's suggestion to have it tested again.

"The sum of the two results, both unreliable… cannot give a reliable result," he wrote.

This was a mistake, according to mathematician Coralie Colmez.

"The thing with statistics and probability is that people feel it's intuitive," she says.

"But actually the mathematics tells you that if you have an unreliable test, you do it again and you can be a lot more certain of that answer. And it's not intuitive but a simple calculation will tell you that it's true."

You have to view the two forensic tests as not separate from one another, but as one big test, says Colmez. She compares it to an experiment to find out whether a coin is biased.


Continued in the article. She's getting retried, though.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought she was back in the states. Is she being extradited?

F U no double jeopardy!
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WTF? It's DNA, you can't accidentally two strands of DNA.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:03 pm    Post subject: Interviews and evidence Reply with quote

I honestly wonder how much of this evidence/DNA stuff will be in the upcoming interviews and her memoir. I heard that they pretty much say nothing that we don't already know but since there are so many weird nuances to this story, I might give them a try. It seems like interviewers always try to incriminate them and then see what the subject has to say so maybe (for example) Diane Sawyer will bring up all the evidence and "evidence" they have against her.

My DVR is set for Tuesday night! Such a fascinating case.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 9:19 pm    Post subject: Re: Amanda Knox was acquitted on bad maths. Reply with quote

Quote:
You have to view the two forensic tests as not separate from one another, but as one big test, says Colmez. She compares it to an experiment to find out whether a coin is biased.
Ah, the old test until you get the result you want approach.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 10:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only conclusion to be drawn from the case is that Italians are complete a***holes.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:33 am    Post subject: Re: Amanda Knox was acquitted on bad maths. Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
Quote:
You have to view the two forensic tests as not separate from one another, but as one big test, says Colmez. She compares it to an experiment to find out whether a coin is biased.
Ah, the old test until you get the result you want approach.


That's not the approach.

You have the same phenomenon in maths. there is an example in the article, but repeated probabilistic algorithms have this feature.

Here's a simple example. Suppose that you have a coin and you want to test whether the coin actually has a tails side (i.e. you know that it has a heads side, but don't know if both sides are heads). So, you are trying to determine the truth of the statement "both sides of the coin are heads" and all you can do is flip the coin in the air and see the outcome. Suppose you are also given that the coin is known to be fair, i.e. it will land on either side with probability 1/2.

You start flipping. Notice, that you are certain of a false answer (i.e. if you see a tails, the statement is false). However, you can never be certain of the truth of the statement. But, if you flip the coin 100 times and you saw 100 heads, the probability that would happen with a fair coin with a heads and tail side is (1/2)^100, very small. So repeated experiments give you more information, and you can decide how many flips you want to do until you are satisfied. Clearly, 1 is not enough, but maybe 10 flips will satisfy you.
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pjp
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A lot of prerequisite assumptions. If tails never shows up, maybe it isn't a fair coin like it was thought to have been.

I'm not a fan of ZOMG!!!111 DNA means teh guilty!!!!1111 As much as it is evidence, DNA seems used to bully juries into a point of view.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 10:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
A lot of prerequisite assumptions. If tails never shows up, maybe it isn't a fair coin like it was thought to have been.

I'm not a fan of ZOMG!!!111 DNA means teh guilty!!!!1111 As much as it is evidence, DNA seems used to bully juries into a point of view.


I was illustrating how these probabilistic algorithms work. many well known algorithms run on a similar basis.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 2:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, it is pretty apparent she did it.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 2:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

aidanjt wrote:
WTF? It's DNA, you can't accidentally two strands of DNA.

Accidentally what two strands of DNA?
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PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2013 5:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A wise man once mused over the fact that Italy was shaped like a boot. He posited the reason was that God couldn't fit that much shit in a shoe.
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PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2013 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

dmitchell wrote:
aidanjt wrote:
WTF? It's DNA, you can't accidentally two strands of DNA.

Accidentally what two strands of DNA?

Exactly!
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PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2013 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

She should have been sent to Egypt for truth extraction by expert interrogators. The good news is that most likely her career as CIA operative ended untimely.
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PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2013 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Italian legal system did not dispense justice; it dispensed *with* justice preferring to indulge in perverted sexual fantasies instead. With their lurid stories of sadistic sex games, the prosecution turned themselves into pornographers and the court into a seedy, back-street cinema where patrons leer and fumble in the dark.

Meredith Kercher may not have been a victim of a vicious sex game but Amanda Knox certainly was.
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