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patrix_neo
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Naib wrote:
fair play. Ill just self-isolate with my farts

Sure, don't care about the pollution. Keep do your thing. Care for humanity is not your thing!
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Naib wrote:
Yes, the of recovery to deaths... Once this starts to increase, the system is no longer able to keep up with the loading ... this should be around 50% as that is what CoronaVirus is showing for those who are critical. so what do you think a higher number show? or more importantly and change over time
The idea 0-1 shows the quality of a health system. But surely the counted recovered nor the count of Coronavirus deaths differ in each country. But if this kind of counting in one country keeps stable in its kind - then a subsequently generated curve from my formula (1-death/recoverd) would show any kind of emergency situation in the health care system of that country.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
patrix_neo wrote:
figueroa wrote:
notageek wrote:

Okay, so if I convert 10% of the population to India, that works out to, yep, 10% of the population. Do you really consider 10% of the population

Damned, you're cynical!


Hey, Not to answer as his voice or anything, but. He drives realy bad!
That's a quote from richk449. AFAIK he likes tigers very much.

Not sure if he drives.

Nope it's from BK. Check your log!...and your airplane center parkinglots. Do not crash again plz.
EDIT: Ok, no crash, but you have some disability while driving. My bad. ...it's abut the GPS thing....
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patrix_neo
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BTW - Sweden : 50+ dead in one hour!...oh wait...in a day!
Take that Italy and Spain...
But we have alot to offer, maybe a whole million have been contaminated by the virus. (not untruly ). That is according to a scientist. SWEDISH scientist.
Anyways, I hope you have a good corona tussilago cure.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
patrix_neo wrote:
figueroa wrote:
notageek wrote:

Okay, so if I convert 10% of the population to India, that works out to, yep, 10% of the population. Do you really consider 10% of the population

Damned, you're cynical!


Hey, Not to answer as his voice or anything, but. He drives realy bad!
That's a quote from richk449. AFAIK he likes tigers very much.

:D
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry, I was on my tablet and messed up. You wrote:
notageek wrote:
90% of India's 1billion population is 900 million. Yes, in India 10% doesn't matter.

That's what I meant was cynical, unless you meant it as some kind of dry humour, in which case it's too dry.
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patrix_neo
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
notageek wrote:
patrix_neo wrote:
figueroa wrote:
notageek wrote:

Okay, so if I convert 10% of the population to India, that works out to, yep, 10% of the population. Do you really consider 10% of the population

Damned, you're cynical!


Hey, Not to answer as his voice or anything, but. He drives realy bad!
That's a quote from richk449. AFAIK he likes tigers very much.

:D

Hey! You take away the fun from me. Stop it!

Swedes know how to deal with this - we just kick their asses!
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ulenrich wrote:

My try: 1 - (deaths / recovered)


The problem with math formulas is always the quality of data clearly the number of deaths should be more or less correct (elderly that die at home are not counted in many cases for lack of time) but the number of recovered clearly is dependent on how many infected persons were found which in turn depends on how many tests were made. Beside many recovered relapses and recover again so are counted twice. The number of recovered is definitely not reliable as an indicator. For examples Germany counts as recovered also persons with very mild symptoms that recover by themselves without any help from the health care system so don't really count.

Maybe 1 - (deaths / hospitalized) could be better if the health care system is not overwhelmed.

Now with the blood test being deployed here we'll know better the number of infected and recovered, the immunity last several months luckily.

There is a new drug that blocks the cytokine storm.

https://www.novartis.com/news/media-releases/novartis-announces-plan-initiate-clinical-study-jakavi-severe-covid-19-patients-and-establish-international-compassionate-use-program
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

India of course is not affected that much as most of the people are vegetarians. Also i have heard that Sadhus smoke holy weed. That CAN'T go wrong.
There was a radio broadcast which mentioned that during the Plague people with most iron in blood were affected also the most. Plague is a bacteria so it might be that this analogy is to far driven but why not?
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

e3k wrote:
India of course is not affected that much as most of the people are vegetarians. Also i have heard that Sadhus smoke holy weed. That CAN'T go wrong.
There was a radio broadcast which mentioned that during the Plague people with most iron in blood were affected also the most. Plague is a bacteria so it might be that this analogy is to far driven but why not?

So what is the take off?
EDIT: Wow, unprescedented. I walk the line...Screw it. You are better than me. I am sorry for terrorizing you up.
EDIT: Good find! lol. If that is the truth. What is in the realm of PK?
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Last edited by patrix_neo on Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

e3k wrote:
India of course is not affected that much as most of the people are vegetarians. Also i have heard that Sadhus smoke holy weed. That CAN'T go wrong.
There was a radio broadcast which mentioned that during the Plague people with most iron in blood were affected also the most. Plague is a bacteria so it might be that this analogy is to far driven but why not?

That is just a fake news like USSR vaccines:
https://www.msn.com/en-in/health/familyhealth/vegetarian-food-indian-immunity-wont-prevent-covid-19-says-anand-krishnan/ar-BB11c02h
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

e3k wrote:
India of course is not affected that much as most of the people are vegetarians. Also i have heard that Sadhus smoke holy weed. That CAN'T go wrong.
There was a radio broadcast which mentioned that during the Plague people with most iron in blood were affected also the most. Plague is a bacteria so it might be that this analogy is to far driven but why not?

So what is the take off?
EDIT: Wow, unprescedented. I walk the line...Screw it. You are better than me. I am sorry for terrorizing you up.
EDIT: Good find! lol. If that is the truth. What is in the realm of PK? I need to know what to think!
BTW dosent convey what COVID-19 is. A strange thing...be affraid!
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:

That is just a fake news like USSR vaccines:
https://www.msn.com/en-in/health/familyhealth/vegetarian-food-indian-immunity-wont-prevent-covid-19-says-anand-krishnan/ar-BB11c02h

Wow, what a crap site for "news."
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
I read that the ventilators promised by Trump will arrive in July, a bit too late probably ..... that is why Cuomo ordered some from China
Sure. Ramping up production from very low volume is going to be difficult to predict availability. But that is a separate issue from Cuomo trying to deflect blame from his gamble.

erm67 wrote:
We also had an increase in heart attacks at home since people was too scared to go to the hospital even after having heart attack symptoms.
Which is understandable. If coronavirus is as bad as the reaction would justify, then an at risk person would want to avoid the concentration of exposure that would be in a hospital. I'm not saying it is the right decision, just that it is an understandable concern given the degree of danger attriubuted the virus.

erm67 wrote:
COVID-19 might be less deadly than what previously thought, random blood test in the former red zone show that 70% of the people living there has antibodies, so we reached herd immunity in some parts of Lombardy in less than 4 months.
But 80% death rate in ICU is high
If the outcome turns out to be not much worse than a bad seasonal flu, I think the next time around is going to result in people not believing those who cried wolf this time. I heard or read recently that SARS was deadlier, but did not transmit as easily. Hopefully enough will be learned this round in case there is a combination of SARS deadliness with Covid19 transmission.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
If the outcome turns out to be not much worse than a bad seasonal flu, I think the next time around is going to result in people not believing those who cried wolf this time. I heard or read recently that SARS was deadlier, but did not transmit as easily. Hopefully enough will be learned this round in case there is a combination of SARS deadliness with Covid19 transmission.


Did there were ever so many ambulances with sirens on the streets and hospital overflow with seasonal flu?

The spanish flu was very similar to SARS-2 and it sweept 4 times through the world, and the waves were laways more dadly so unless they find a vaccine, produce it in large amount and vaccinate a large part of the population there is a lot of time until it is gone. Soon it will be like at the times of the Spanish flu:
https://blog.genealogybank.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/bellingham-herald-newspaper-1028-1918-spanish-flu-mask.png
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If is a stipulation. Right? I love those.

To paraprase the strophe :
pjp wrote:

If coronavirus is as bad as the reaction would justify,


Where is the facts?
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Naib wrote:
not only that, the system won't be able to handle that many cadavers.
To everything burn, burn, burn
There is a season burn, burn, burn

(link to the original, so you'll have to use your imagination)


notageek wrote:
I'm not sure I understand your post very well.
"flu like symptoms" appeared to be part of a foundation for your position. I was pointing out that dismissing "flu like symptoms" weakened your argument that concern was overblown.


erm67 wrote:
Soon it will be like at the times of the Spanish flu:
https://blog.genealogybank.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/bellingham-herald-newspaper-1028-1918-spanish-flu-mask.png
See you on the other side.


patrix_neo wrote:
Where is the facts?
History is written by the victor.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
Soon it will be like at the times of the Spanish flu:

Racist.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:

patrix_neo wrote:
Where is the facts?
History is written by the victor.

Corona!...oh wait...
pjp - you are one of the better ones. And ...I hate you too. So much!
I mean...if you are not from Sweden...heeey!...I love NHL in some terms.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Have a good night everyone. And stop lickering that fence ok!
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm still working full time, and my life has been essentially unaffected, other than my portfolio losing about 10% of its value before I rotated everything out of equities temporarily. (I've begun slowly rotating it back in, by the way.)

I've abided by the futile guidance, but I suspect I have been exposed numerous times, and I have had multiple mild bouts of the various symptoms, although nothing serious probably because I have been concentrating on keeping my immune system strong and because I think there are a half dozen respiratory viruses floating around, so I've probably picked up 4d6 of them.

I'm laughing at the captain obvious "revelation" that it may be passing through the air in aerosolized form regardless of coughing or sneezing, simply as a result of breathing the same recently breathed air, as it's been my experience with the various respiratory infections over the years that it's easy to get them very quickly simply by being in a recently symptomatic person's office or car or even carrying on a hallway conversation for a few minutes. Standing farther apart will obviously reduce that, but only incrementally.

I stand by my initial perspective that the best thing to do (until there is a vaccine) is stay healthy, abide by official guidance, accept the fact that you're going to be exposed, hole up for a few days and do the obvious things at the first sign of any symptoms (lots of sleep, fluids, etc), and and rely on your highly-evolved immune system to build up your defenses. That's merely my opinion.

That, and pray that the tidal wave of idiotic conventional wisdom and scientific religiosity that is crushing our entire global economy and society in a futile attempt to stop the spread does not put us in another great depression and world war, either of which will undoubtedly kill billions and cause the rest to wish they hadn't survived.

I'm somewhat vulnerable myself being 56 and having high blood pressure, but we're just living in denial if we think we can protect all the vulnerable in the population from being exposed long enough to first develop a vaccine without causing even worse harm than the virus to our own global population. I understand that probably two-thirds of the world's people would like to take this opportunity to take a s*** on Donald Trump's head and say that trying to save the economy is putting money before lives, but that's because they are stupid and do not understand how central economics really is to human existence. Sadly, even the so-called experts that we naturally run to for advice in this circumstance, the scientists, medical professionals, and even public health officials, are largely ignorant regarding macro-economics.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How's the ravens doing in the towers? Thinking Jo-bo and maybe Naib here.
Edit sorry for my inconvinience. Not ment to be. Just a fluke.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bones McCracker wrote:
I'm still working full time, and my life has been essentially unaffected, other than my portfolio losing about 10% of its value before I rotated everything out of equities temporarily. (I've begun slowly rotating it back in, by the way.)

I've abided by the futile guidance, but I suspect I have been exposed numerous times, and I have had multiple mild bouts of the various symptoms, although nothing serious probably because I have been concentrating on keeping my immune system strong and because I think there are a half dozen respiratory viruses floating around, so I've probably picked up 4d6 of them.

I'm laughing at the captain obvious "revelation" that it may be passing through the air in aerosolized form regardless of coughing or sneezing, simply as a result of breathing the same recently breathed air, as it's been my experience with the various respiratory infections over the years that it's easy to get them very quickly simply by being in a recently symptomatic person's office or car or even carrying on a hallway conversation for a few minutes. Standing farther apart will obviously reduce that, but only incrementally.

I stand by my initial perspective that the best thing to do (until there is a vaccine) is stay healthy, abide by official guidance, accept the fact that you're going to be exposed, hole up for a few days and do the obvious things at the first sign of any symptoms (lots of sleep, fluids, etc), and and rely on your highly-evolved immune system to build up your defenses. That's merely my opinion.

That, and pray that the tidal wave of idiotic conventional wisdom and scientific religiosity that is crushing our entire global economy and society in a futile attempt to stop the spread does not put us in another great depression and world war, either of which will undoubtedly kill billions and cause the rest to wish they hadn't survived.

I'm somewhat vulnerable myself being 56 and having high blood pressure, but we're just living in denial if we think we can protect all the vulnerable in the population from being exposed long enough to first develop a vaccine without causing even worse harm than the virus to our own global population. I understand that probably two-thirds of the world's people would like to take this opportunity to take a s*** on Donald Trump's head and say that trying to save the economy is putting money before lives, but that's because they are stupid and do not understand how central economics really is to human existence. Sadly, even the so-called experts that we naturally run to for advice in this circumstance, the scientists, medical professionals, and even public health officials, are largely ignorant regarding macro-economics.


Letting the virus rampage would weed out a lot of boomers and potentially fix the reverse population pyramid, which would be a really good thing economically.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spain got into globalisation trap with Erdogan government:
ventilators produced in Turkey by spanish firm confiscated
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
ulenrich wrote:

My try: 1 - (deaths / recovered)


The problem with math formulas is always the quality of data clearly the number of deaths should be more or less correct (elderly that die at home are not counted in many cases for lack of time) but the number of recovered clearly is dependent on how many infected persons were found which in turn depends on how many tests were made. Beside many recovered relapses and recover again so are counted twice. The number of recovered is definitely not reliable as an indicator. For examples Germany counts as recovered also persons with very mild symptoms that recover by themselves without any help from the health care system so don't really count.

Maybe 1 - (deaths / hospitalized) could be better if the health care system is not overwhelmed.
Now, that exactly would I like to show with my indicator formula:
At what moment in time of a steady curve from 0 to 1 there is shown a health care system breakdown in a country which is overwhelmed. I don't want to show how the infection rate develops - that curve could be shown in another color also. Nor would I like to show phantastic numburs of a country which doesn't test and doesn't know what the situation is (shows below zero in my formula)! And my formula will get better data with the new Anti-body tests arriving soonishly!

In my formula I would like to acknowledge the average age of the people though:
A younger people like in Iran should recover without any health system pretty well. Also in Africa only the corrupt rich would die - all other poor human beings there only have a life expectancy below 70y anyway. This pandemic should bring much of a progress to shit hole countries without health care system due to a generation change of the corrupt men in power by the angel of death. (but perhaps I am mis-calculating for Africa)
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