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richk449
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
In the the US the number of ICU beds might be enough if they contain the spread since they already have twice as much ICU beds as Italy had 2 weeks ago (that is more or less like Canada) ....

Interesting that New York has not declared a lockdown. They are much worse than the SF Bay Area, where we are on day three. They seem to be trying to do less severe measures instead. It will be interesting to see if it makes a difference. And as this plays out over the longer term, it will also be interesting if avoiding the most draconian policies helps reduce the economic harm. Basically, it is nice that different balances are being tried.
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flysideways
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

desultory wrote:
flysideways wrote:
But trump is a racist, the TDS is a quite persistent strain causing a detachment from reality and reason.
But Trump knew in advance. He told everyone that the Red Plague was coming, over two full years before this became popularly known, even going so far as to give us part of the name by which it would be popularly known: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covfefe.


I don't remember if English is your first language or not. I've always understood that you don't really know a language if you are not fluent in the expletives and pejoratives.

I'm not familiar with your reference to Trump speaking of or tweeting that the Red Plague was coming. If you have a reputable reference that would be entertaining.

Now about the pejorative, or term of disparagement, "Red Plague". That has been used previously in reference to the Soviet Union and its communism, or specifically communism.

I wonder if you know the pejorative, or term of disparagement, that would actually have been used by some in a racially charged slur against anyone Chinese.
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Muso
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DIY Fu Facemask

Also : The Virus That Shames China
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
it will also be interesting if avoiding the most draconian policies helps reduce the economic harm. Basically, it is nice that different balances are being tried.


There is an very funny covid simulator here, it is configurable. Unfortunately it crashed because of too much traffic after half an hour:
https://neherlab.org/covid19/

Maybe later it will work again.
It showed the effects of mitigation given the number of ICU, and a lot of configurable parameters. The ICU overflow (and death rate) is dramatic for every country in the world without mitigation.

I read that Tesla will help manufacturing the ventilators like Ferrari is doing in Italy, they should start the production right away if there aren't mitigations measures, at 40% growth rate like in the USA it won't take too long until clusters like Bergamo starts to appear. And there was still 1 free ICU in Bergamo at the worst point. In practice in the USA there are a bit more than double ICU pro capita as in Italy that might be enough if the growth rate goes under 10% with mitigation.
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Last edited by erm67 on Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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richk449
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
I read that Tesla will help manufacturing the ventilators like Ferrari is doing in Italy, they should start the production right away if there aren't mitigations measures, at 40% growth rate like in the USA it won't take too long until clusters like Bergamo starts to appear. And there was still 1 free ICU in Bergamo at the worst point. In practice in the USA there are a bit more than double ISU pro capita as in Italy that might be enough if the growth rate goes under 10% with mitigation.

I like Elon, but he is hurting his reputation around here right now. The Tesla factory in Freemont is within the SF bay area shelter in place order, so it should have shut down on Tuesday (like my company, and virtually every other company, did). Of course, Tesla didn't, claiming that the factory was essential business.

After some european carmakers said they would start manufacturing ventilators, GM made a similar announcement here. Finally, after everyone else, and a few days of getting slammed for not shutting down their factory, Musk announced that Tesla would also make ventilators.
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erm67
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:

After some european carmakers said they would start manufacturing ventilators, GM made a similar announcement here. Finally, after everyone else, and a few days of getting slammed for not shutting down their factory, Musk announced that Tesla would also make ventilators.


It might sounds strange but if the anti-il-6 drug that blocks the ARDS works like they say it does less people will die but still need a ventilator so the ICU will overflow sooner and more people die .... manufacturing ventilators is essential business. I think I remember to have read that Intensive Care Wards in the USA will begin to collapse in 10 days, there isn't much time.
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desultory
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flysideways wrote:
I don't remember if English is your first language or not.
At this point, neither do I.
flysideways wrote:
I've always understood that you don't really know a language if you are not fluent in the expletives and pejoratives.
Consider me biased, but I am somewhat hesitant to take that particular test here.
flysideways wrote:
I'm not familiar with your reference to Trump speaking of or tweeting that the Red Plague was coming. If you have a reputable reference that would be entertaining.
The wikipedia article that I linked was quite clear on that:
Quote:
Shortly after midnight (EDT) on May 31, 2017, Trump tweeted "Despite the constant negative press covfefe", and stopped.

Now, we know that the press has been pushing the corona virus as the apocalypse, and that he encoded the first three letters of the most used name for the virus and followed it with a pattern which was repeated, thereby marking that "cov" was coming in two and that the press would lavish negative coverage upon it. This prophecy has indeed come to pass.
flysideways wrote:
Now about the pejorative, or term of disparagement, "Red Plague". That has been used previously in reference to the Soviet Union and its communism, or specifically communism.
So... you are telling me that hte virus turns those affected by it into communists? That explains so much.
flysideways wrote:
I wonder if you know the pejorative, or term of disparagement, that would actually have been used by some in a racially charged slur against anyone Chinese.
If mass market goods are anything to go by, "Made in China" probably sufficed.
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desultory
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just to be clear, that was me playing with Poe's law. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe%27s_law

flysideways wrote:
I don't remember if English is your first language or not. I've always understood that you don't really know a language if you are not fluent in the expletives and pejoratives.
Seriously, I am not getting into a creative swearing contest in Off the Wall. Not yet anyway.
flysideways wrote:
I'm not familiar with your reference to Trump speaking of or tweeting that the Red Plague was coming. If you have a reputable reference that would be entertaining.
After the tweet referenced in my previous two posts in this topic, the media made quite a lot of fuss and bother over the tweet in question (including some claiming that his deleting the tweet was an impeachable offense), I was playing off of that and the coincident spelling to make something of a Checkov's gag. https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ChekhovsGag
flysideways wrote:
Now about the pejorative, or term of disparagement, "Red Plague". That has been used previously in reference to the Soviet Union and its communism, or specifically communism.
Therein lies part of that specific part of the joke, red being a reference to it coming from communist China and plague being a reference to it's hyped status as being essentially that despite statistics to the contrary; that fitting with prior use of Red Plague and how that meshed with repeated statements by Trump to the effect of China being America's most notable counter on the world stage was a cherry on top.
flysideways wrote:
I wonder if you know the pejorative, or term of disparagement, that would actually have been used by some in a racially charged slur against anyone Chinese.
The most obvious faux disease name to use that reference would also be slang for inappropriately specific sexual attraction to individuals from southeast Asia (not to mention being an existing actual disease, which has lower incidence in Asia than in Africa and South America), and that was not the joke I was going for. Do feel free to make use of it yourself though.
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Bones McCracker
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It should have been called Man-Bear-Pig-Virus.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bones McCracker wrote:
It should have been called Man-Bear-Pig-Virus.


You mean Tom Hanks' Disease?
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flysideways
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

desultory wrote:
Do feel free to make use of it yourself though.


No need, my yellow WHO card is current. Even if it is the Sanofi product.

The one I was expecting was not the fever but the peril.
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desultory
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Muso wrote:
Bones McCracker wrote:
It should have been called Man-Bear-Pig-Virus.


You mean Tom Hanks' Disease?
Trudeau-Elba Syndrome. We of course know that Sophie, not Justin, was the carrier because because otherwise that would imply that Justin managed to carry anything for himself for an extended period of time.
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desultory
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flysideways wrote:
desultory wrote:
Do feel free to make use of it yourself though.


No need, my yellow WHO card is current. Even if it is the Sanofi product.

The one I was expecting was not the fever but the peril.
Peril does not quite imply disease, merely danger.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
[And as this plays out over the longer term, it will also be interesting if avoiding the most draconian policies helps reduce the economic harm. Basically, it is nice that different balances are being tried.


++

Excellent point.
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flysideways
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A rational marketplace with rational actors who individually act to mitigate and manage risk?

That wouldn't leave much room for all those that want to control others.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flysideways wrote:
A rational marketplace with rational actors who individually act to mitigate and manage risk?

That wouldn't leave much room for all those that want to control others.


~Feelz~

We need better emoticons.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flysideways wrote:
A rational marketplace with rational actors who individually act to mitigate and manage risk?

That wouldn't leave much room for all those that want to control others.
Interesting. I'd give it a chance, but I tend to prefer High fantasy to either Low or Urban fantasy.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

desultory wrote:
Muso wrote:
Bones McCracker wrote:
It should have been called Man-Bear-Pig-Virus.


You mean Tom Hanks' Disease?
Trudeau-Elba Syndrome. We of course know that Sophie, not Justin, was the carrier because because otherwise that would imply that Justin managed to carry anything for himself for an extended period of time.


++

We have a winner.

Her beardness has been confirmed,
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
Only 17 persons under 50 died in Italy and only 3 of them had no other illness, a terrific bioweapon that could anihilate an Army ..... of retired workers :-)


Don't know, it's putting a strain on services - I've just returned from a shop (just the basics) and it was chaos (6 am in the morning). If you want to win a war, screwing up supply lines, attacking moral back home looks to be a good start.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like Italy's death toll has exceeded China's - but the bit they miss out on telling is, "only if China has been honest in reported fatalities"


Said a couple of weeks back that we'd all find out how truthful China has been about this virus. The hard way.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

But - and this is the last update from old JB, a ray of hope :


linky full of hope

Quote:
"We are all being advised to change our normal routines and regular patterns of life for the greater good of the communities we live in and, in particular, to protect the most vulnerable within them.

At times such as these, I am reminded that our nation's history has been forged by people and communities coming together to work as one, concentrating our combined efforts with a focus on the common goal.

Sod off that's one's pack of bog rolls arsehole"


The queen was quoted as she joined heaving queues for her weekly shop.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Was at work today. Half the time. When fetching my coffee to drink in my 'box' (room) I heard a colleague chatting away with one of the personell in the 'teria.
Half-half laughing out:
-"I got the corona and am back again!" (big smile here). As if he just got a big-ass awesome tattoo on his foreskin and wanted to show it to her.

That's how serious it is. Swedes knows what's best for us all.
...EDIT...maybe they did it better...
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://i.redd.it/bfqyldhgttn41.gif
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Naib wrote:
https://i.redd.it/bfqyldhgttn41.gif


:lol: :lol: :lol:
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

patrix_neo wrote:

That's how serious it is. Swedes knows what's best for us all.


Yes according to the simulation Swedish hospitals will begin to overflow at the beginning of April:
https://imgur.com/a/DAQvB0z
maybe earlier since Sweden is no longer testing. Anyway withonly 500 ICU and 40000 Swedish at the peak that will need a ventilator to survive won't be nice ...

What are the rules to allocate the 550 ventilator to the 40.000 people that needs them, how will they choose who lives and who dies?
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