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notageek
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:01 am    Post subject: China overtakes US economy: IMF Reply with quote

https://eurasiantimes.com/imf-admits-china-has-long-overtaken-the-us-as-the-worlds-largest-economy-but-why-is-the-media-silent/

Quote:
According to the IMF’s World Economic Output 2020 released recently, China has now overtaken the US to become the world’s largest economy.

Yes, you read that right. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), using the more reliable and now widely accepted yardstick, called the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), has determined China’s economy at $24.2 trillion compared to America’s $20.8 trillion.

The PPP calculation method used by the IMF enables you to compare how much you can buy for your money in different countries. The economists have traditionally been using MER (market exchange rates) to calculate GDP, which doesn’t reflect the real figures.

The MER method is being viewed with extreme suspicion because it underestimates the buying power of the currencies of many countries. As a result, the currencies of many nations are undervalued against the dollar.

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Old School
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah! Slave Labor FTW!
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old School wrote:
Yeah! Slave Labor FTW!
I doubt that the incarcerated 1Mio Uigurs are of any significant rate in their economy.
On the contrary you must acknowledge that much of the U.S. economy is fake capaitalism wealth: If Wallstreet would be confronted with worldwide mistrust, because the level of debt or the high rate of "printing" Dollars or that your Government doesn't take "Rule of Law" anymore as an important condition, then more than two third of that financial economy cracks.

Also China is able to re-invent pretty much of all the U.S. digital economy. How much of pharma and new genetical innovation they can implement in China we don't know yet.

My hypothesis: The U.S. economy is much like Nokia on it's hights 15y ago. One crash of the stock exchange away from a sad truth: It is all a glorious past. And I think we gonna get soonishly that follow up crash, which totally destroys trust in Wallstreet, just like the first crash in 1929 was followed by a second shortly after. The Roosevelt presidency needed ten years to regain old levels.

On the other side China highly risks large misinvestments. We have many articles in our german mainstream media about that in China.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ulenrich wrote:
Also China is able to re-invent pretty much of all the U.S. digital economy. How much of pharma and new genetical innovation they can implement in China we don't know yet.

You say reinvent. I think stolen is more accurate.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Or given to them by the invisible hand of a free market.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old School wrote:
Yeah! Slave Labor FTW!
Don't worry, China may be up at the moment but people want to stop dealing with them. Watch how places like Thailand, India and Malaysia start eating into their GDP
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cokey wrote:
Old School wrote:
Yeah! Slave Labor FTW!
Don't worry, China may be up at the moment but people want to stop dealing with them. Watch how places like Thailand, India and Malaysia start eating into their GDP


Exactly, ABC (Anything But China) is excelerating around the world and India stands a chance to capitalise. They are increasing the PCB fabrication and assembly capability to take advance of this (domestically and internationally)

The thing about China's numbers and growth is it is centrally controlled. Not like cheap loans or legislation but outright control so much so that if they want something they will Chuck people at a company to keep it working. Look at France to see what happens when you force keep an industry or company "competitive"
The number of banks that are on the verge of collapse in China, it is scary. You say be worried about wall Street, I would be worried when the Chinese everything bubble pops
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Arghh, I didn't know how desperate you are already. Feels like you believe the U.S. is ripe for attack when your last resort is these slogans ... I have to think China will take Taiwan in the night of the U.S. election.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If they do, you'll die as a result before we do.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know.
But only if you do.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The US should just start buying Russian and Chinese treasuries in a big way, it will make their local currencies stronger therefor their products will be less competitive against made in USA. Current strategy of sanctions and information warfare is not going to cut it. Yes, public opinion is very anti-Chinese right now, but does it transfer to politics in a meaningful way? Developing nations simply may not have that much of a choice because of limited finances, by sanctions and blackmailing you just frustrate and alienate half of the globe (the developing part of it). Let's face it, no one ever gonna payout multi-trillion debt to anyone. All of it will burn when the whole financial system collapses, so why not make China owe the US couple trillions, to balance things out? The US can't just fence off China, they are 50% of the global trade. The US needs an unorthodox, smart asymmetrical response, but such response is limited by the internal political situation in the US itself, how would your average voter perceive buying Chinese treasuries after many years of brainwashing that China is the worst enemy on the planet. This is a stalemate, and time is on the Chinese side.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

@etnull
You only can buy treasuries of another country when the trade balance tends to your side for years. That is the cause China has some of the U.S. Some "unorthodox, smart asymmetrical response" only on a short term won't help against our decline, because "time is on the Chinese side" for decades. This was the motivation voters desperately called Trump for president in 2016.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

@ulenrich
Anyone can buy foreign treasuries, even private investors. Maybe I'm stupid and not getting something about this scenario, perhaps China can stop issuing government bonds to walloff from American buying spree, but what if you also start buying Chinese currency, if the exchange rate gonna be 1:1 producing in neighboring Vietnam or Philippines will be 7-10 times cheaper. This is pure capitalism. At the same time... 1to1 exchange rate is very risky play, the polarity of these mega-magnets can flip in an instant, and then you basically lost your world's reserve currency status, that's gonna turn very ugly very fast for the US. It will be interesting to see how it develops, but no matter what, I just don't see how 20% tariffs suppose to fix anything, it's just mutual damage with no clear winner, it can work against a small target, but not the economy of the size of your own.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Arrgh, you are totally right: You want to down value the U.S. currency!
Yes, then yes. I subconsciously conditioned: You don't usually want to make a waste of your own currency doing such move.
And yes, the whole of the wealth on the brink with your move probably 8)
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

etnull wrote:
... world's reserve currency status, ....
...., I just don't see how 20% tariffs suppose to fix anything, it's just mutual damage with no clear winner, it can work against a small target, but not the economy of the size of your own.

The status world reserve currency for sure is a burden to the american labor force. That is for sure! This only cannot be felt in the U.S. when there is no one else on the world market or someone little. Germany and shortly after Japan were these little doing no harm for long ... but these times are long gone since everybody else came up on the markets.

The tariffs negatively effect the american economy in long supply chains: You have extraordinary costs for somewhat ...

I would concentrate against China on targets everybody else in the world can agree: Patents and fair wages for the work forces. And Rule of Law for all the foreign investments made in China.

But how to achieve that when "America First" is first principle of politics in the U.S.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

@ulenrich
patents - agree
fair wages ... I don't see legal basis over this issue, you can't apply your local laws across borders, if China wants to treat their citizens like garbage they have all the right to do so, it's not your citizens, and no, you can't nuke the whole damn place to 'fix the issue', stable systemic change can only happen from within, never from the outside.
oops, I managed to disagree about something "everybody else in the world can agree"
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:20 pm    Post subject: Re: China overtakes US economy: IMF Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
https://eurasiantimes.com/imf-admits-china-has-long-overtaken-the-us-as-the-worlds-largest-economy-but-why-is-the-media-silent/

Quote:
According to the IMF’s World Economic Output 2020 released recently, China has now overtaken the US to become the world’s largest economy.

Yes, you read that right. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), using the more reliable and now widely accepted yardstick, called the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), has determined China’s economy at $24.2 trillion compared to America’s $20.8 trillion.

The PPP calculation method used by the IMF enables you to compare how much you can buy for your money in different countries. The economists have traditionally been using MER (market exchange rates) to calculate GDP, which doesn’t reflect the real figures.

The MER method is being viewed with extreme suspicion because it underestimates the buying power of the currencies of many countries. As a result, the currencies of many nations are undervalued against the dollar.


Where in China have you moved?
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

etnull wrote:
if China wants to treat their citizens like garbage they have all the right to do so

They do?
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notageek
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

They do.

You're not sufficiently familiar with the constitution of the despotic, tin-pot dictator's federation.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Depends on what you mean by “right”.

Where is dmitchell when you need him?
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is completely artificial because of COVID. Wait about 5 years.

Second, China is bracing itself for a crash if Trump continues his current policies. That is just a fact. Even if they have a bigger economy they don't have a better one. I'm sure plenty of woman can explain size doesn't matter if it is floppy.

@ulenrich odd you would think the US doesn't have international trust while China does. China has a long history of not honoring its debts. The same cannot be said for the US. In fact, many foreign investors by US real estate because it is known to be safe while China is extremely risky because you never actually own anything in China. If you want to worry about a crash worry about... the eurozone. There is a reason everyone is suddenly worried about a no deal brexit except the British. Well, the informed ones anyway. Your economy is the one one about to get shocked and have major industries shutdown. Specifically fishing. The rest of the world will get out popcorn while France, Germany, et. al. ague about who pays for what and where the extra money comes from. This year has proven they are not on the same page and Europe is in real danger of fracturing under the pressure.

Here is another uncomfortable truth. You want to stabilize the US economy it is easily done. War with China. China does not have the assets to fight such a conflict and the necessary output will create plenty of jobs. I never said it was a desirable or humane solution. Simply one history has proven to be highly effective.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Doctor wrote:

@ulenrich odd you would think the US doesn't have international trust while China does. China has a long history of not honoring its debts. The same cannot be said for the US. In fact, many foreign investors by US real estate because it is known to be safe while China is extremely risky because you never actually own anything in China. If you want to worry about a crash worry about... the eurozone. There is a reason everyone is suddenly worried about a no deal brexit except the British. Well, the informed ones anyway. Your economy is the one one about to get shocked and have major industries shutdown. Specifically fishing. The rest of the world will get out popcorn while France, Germany, et. al. ague about who pays for what and where the extra money comes from. This year has proven they are not on the same page and Europe is in real danger of fracturing under the pressure.

Me and @etnull were discussing his "Gedankenexperiment" if the U.S. would relinquish their world reserve currency status.

We all cannot estimate Chinas economy. We in Germany only see they are buying our cars again just as before their Coronavirus crisis. But I know China builds up another 25 coal-fired power plant despite their running plants are needed half only yet. And many more mis-investment you can see with your eyes: A lot of towns newly build but with no one living there fore example. And we cannot estimate - perhaps not chinese officials - if this will funnel to a crash of the economy in China .... We don't believe their numbers nor do we exactly know how their system is different. The only thing we see: german car makers florish again with chinese consumer demand.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Doctor wrote:
Here is another uncomfortable truth. You want to stabilize the US economy it is easily done. War with China. China does not have the assets to fight such a conflict and the necessary output will create plenty of jobs. I never said it was a desirable or humane solution. Simply one history has proven to be highly effective.
Even if you take very unrealistic scenario in which all other nations abstain, and it's not going to get nuclear, even then the real winner will be India or Europe or Russia, because they will be unaffected while two other giants collide and destroy each other. The US were the only real winners in WW2 precisely because they didn't lose industrial infrastructure. War solves things only when it's not on your soil, and you are not the one who's fighting.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
etnull wrote:
if China wants to treat their citizens like garbage they have all the right to do so

They do?

They got exactly the government they elected. Oh wait...
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bones McCracker wrote:
richk449 wrote:
etnull wrote:
if China wants to treat their citizens like garbage they have all the right to do so

They do?

They got exactly the government they elected. Oh wait...
Maybe the government they deserve.

Probably the most racist culture on the planet.
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