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notageek
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
notageek wrote:
richk449 wrote:
notageek wrote:
Given that most people don't exhibit symptoms or very mild symptoms to this and the number of infections are proportional to the testing, I wonder if this has been a big hoax of some kind.

Hows the lockdown in India?
Terrible.

Total overreaction.

Why do you say that? I can think of three possible reasons:
1. The bad stuff happening in other countries won’t happen in India
2. The bad stuff isn’t actually happening, it’s all hype
3. The bad stuff isn’t really that bad, so we shouldn’t worry about preventing it.

Is one of those it?


1, 2 & 3 are weak strawmen.

Here's what I'm saying. I believe this to be a hoax because this is a flu and the more you test, the more "patients" you get. Moreover, the symptoms for majority of the people are either light or don't even show (carriers).

Having said those things here's why I think it's an overreaction on India's part.

1. India is a pretty huge country compared to the other hotspots such as Italy, Spain and US, with the exception of China. And because India is a huge country, any given time X number of people are afflicted by any disease. Y number of people die and Z number of people recover. In India X, Y & Z run into tens of thousands (if not millions) and you don't really have a reaction as bad as a lockdown.

2. Given that coronavirus affects elderly or people over 65 are at risk and given that most Indian politicians are at-least over 65, this reaction is a blatant attempt at self-preservation. This does not do any good to the general population.

3. The cure cannot be worse than the disease (I heard someone else say that recently). Locking down the entire country where the majority of the people are either self-employed or daily-wage earners, causes more harm to the entire population at-once than coronavirus could've done to a few. Yes ten-of-thousands or hundreds-of-thousands or even millions is a few number in India. Minuscule even.

Therefore I believe this lockdown has been a poorly thought out, ill advised overeaction, which does no good to India. There are already shortages of food and medicine and black-marketeering.
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desultory
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mardok45 wrote:
Except the Spanish Flu was Influenza, not a Coronavirus you turd. Now go drink some beer from someone's butt.
As I reminded Fran earlier, I now remind you: you can disagree without engaging in personal attacks, or you can disagree elsewhere, the choice is yours.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
erm67 wrote:
The elderly were "illegally" meeting in a hidden place to play boccia in the middle of a pandemic the kills mostly the elderly :-)
Sounds like a version of a speakeasy. I'd rather go out while playing boccia with friends than be a prisoner in my own home.

Many of the very old >80 don't really understand what is going on, they have maybe a bit of Alzehimer, cannot read newspapers or hear the news. There are more elderly on the street without a reason than young people that risk little.
notageek wrote:

2. Given that coronavirus affects elderly or people over 65 are at risk and given that most Indian politicians are at-least over 65, this reaction is a blatant attempt at self-preservation. This does not do any good to the general population.

Not to mention that there are only 30M over 65 in India.
An otherwise healty 16 old in france died in just few hours after the symptoms yesterday ...
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another problem is that the swabs aren't very useful for diagnostic. The virus build slowly in the body, it takes days from the time of infection to when a person is positive to the nasal swab. So it happened that some persons that were negative did become infective just a few days or even hours later, and if the person is a worker in a retirment home it can be a problem. Even if it was possible (and it isn't) to test every worker in retirment home every morning they could become infective later in the evening.
That is why they want to stop using them and use blood antibody search instead.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

desultory wrote:
Fran wrote:
Naib wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52014023

Well Spain can just fuck off

You're an asshole.
Given the content of the story, Naib's comments seem to be somewhat justified

If you think the act of a few people in country X (publicly denounced and investigated for prosecution by X's authorities) justifies "X can fuck off", then you're another fucking asshole.

Bye.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:

1. India is a pretty huge country compared to the other hotspots such as Italy, Spain and US, with the exception of China. And because India is a huge country, any given time X number of people are afflicted by any disease. Y number of people die and Z number of people recover. In India X, Y & Z run into tens of thousands (if not millions) and you don't really have a reaction as bad as a lockdown.

India is huge vs US? you really need to re-check that :P Also, the rest of your statement sounds like "we have enough people to sacrifice, so it doesn't matter if they get sick with this"

Quote:

2. Given that coronavirus affects elderly or people over 65 are at risk and given that most Indian politicians are at-least over 65, this reaction is a blatant attempt at self-preservation. This does not do any good to the general population.

If you're rich/powerful enough, you'd get the care and hospitalization to weather the sickness. The lockdown certainly does help contain the spread so that our already poor infrastructure is't overwhelmed by the new cases.

Quote:

3. The cure cannot be worse than the disease (I heard someone else say that recently). Locking down the entire country where the majority of the people are either self-employed or daily-wage earners, causes more harm to the entire population at-once than coronavirus could've done to a few. Yes ten-of-thousands or hundreds-of-thousands or even millions is a few number in India. Minuscule even.

Therefore I believe this lockdown has been a poorly thought out, ill advised overeaction, which does no good to India. There are already shortages of food and medicine and black-marketeering.

it's the lesser of the evils, we can't recover from a situation like in Italy. The medical facilities in India aren't as good as places like Italy. When the US has a shortage of ventilators, we have a real problem at hand.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Amity88 wrote:

it's the lesser of the evils, we can't recover from a situation like in Italy. The medical facilities in India aren't as good as places like Italy. When the US has a shortage of ventilators, we have a real problem at hand.

We were just lucky that the biggest outbreak was in a relatively small town like Bergamo and not Milan ... otherwise it could have been just like in Spain.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ulenrich wrote:
figueroa wrote:
The Cause of Things, episode 14: https://sovereignnations.com/2020/03/19/virus-lag-measures/

Highlight: "There is a high probability that coronavirus has been present in the United States since December of 2019, and the figures show it. It has been in Europe and in other areas throughout the world for several months before the testing and reporting was effectively applied."
With some data applied you can back calculate:
M=mortality percentage
D=days since the first person infected
R=rate spreading per day
M * D^R / 100 = dead people

for example : 15% growth per day for 105 days:
0.6 * 1.15^105 / 100 = 14172 dead people
Bill Gates on CNN claims an infection growth rate of 30% per day without any measures like isoloation/quarantine. Calculating the Coronavirus entered the U.S. end of November for 105 days pandemic outcome:
0.6% death rate: 0.6 * 1.30^105 / 100 = 5 523 358 628

My calculation suggests an unnoticed infection in the U.S. before December of 2019 is unlikely. This did not happen, because 5 billion people dying suddenly would have been noticed.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
We were just lucky that the biggest outbreak was in a relatively small town like Bergamo and not Milan ... otherwise it could have been just like in Spain.


Spain has lesser cases than Italy. I'm curious why you say that things are worse in Spain?

@Richk449,
The streets are pretty quiet, shops are closed except for a few hours in the morning (food/medicines etc). In some parts of the country, people treat the lockdown as a infringement on their rights/religions-freedom and openly gather in groups, some are pushing back (attacking) on the cops who try to enforce the lockdown.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Amity88 wrote:
erm67 wrote:
We were just lucky that the biggest outbreak was in a relatively small town like Bergamo and not Milan ... otherwise it could have been just like in Spain.


Spain has lesser cases than Italy. I'm curious why you say that things are worse in Spain?
@Amity88 play with your calculator to get used to exponential functions and the outcome, for example my formula on the command line with bc:
Code:
M=0.6;R=1.30;D=1;while [ $D -lt 31 ];do echo -n "at day $D dead: ";bc -l<<<"$M*$R^$D/100";D=$((D+1));done
Change the variables and see the dead bodies!
Or look at a more sophisticated formula, also showing how to flaten the curve at numberphile

EDIT: "worse in Spain?" - just coming in: 800 dead in Spain yesterday. Yes worse it is.


Last edited by ulenrich on Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:59 am; edited 1 time in total
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notageek
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Amity88 wrote:
India is huge vs US? you really need to re-check that :P
India is atleast 3.7 times US. I let you figure out how.

Amity88 wrote:
Also, the rest of your statement sounds like "we have enough people to sacrifice, so it doesn't matter if they get sick with this"
Perhaps you're reading this differently. The amount of people getting sick to the total people is very very low, the reaction isn't proportional to the realities of the ground.

Amity88 wrote:
If you're rich/powerful enough, you'd get the care and hospitalization to weather the sickness.
If in a lockdown the rich can get better treatment than the rest, then the lockdown is useless at-least for the rich and powerful.

Amity88 wrote:
The lockdown certainly does help contain the spread so that our already poor infrastructure is't overwhelmed by the new cases.
Indian infrastructure is strained regardless, this lockdown puts more strain on regular people and has unknown benefit to stopping of infections.

How many confirmed infections in India? Some 800? Confirmed deaths about 17? Do you believe these numbers? If so, is it justified to lockdown an entire country of 1.3 billion people?

If you don't believe these numbers, then how do you know what the lockdown will achieve? It's just a haphazardly planed, kneejerk reaction.

Amity88 wrote:
it's the lesser of the evils, we can't recover from a situation like in Italy. The medical facilities in India aren't as good as places like Italy. When the US has a shortage of ventilators, we have a real problem at hand.
The larger evil is starvation, crippling economic slowdown maybe even homelessness. Also doesn't even help the people it's supposed to help. Read this: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/coronavirus-lockdown-migrants-walk-on-foot-board-buses-at-ups-ghaziabad/articleshow/74860087.cms

Watch the sea of people crossing Delhi to UP on foot.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the disease have changed somewhat. A 16 yearold died on the friday. I was thinking in the lines of mutations.
NOTE: I have not researched her journals or medical records, but she died. A female at that age is extroardinary, because 3/10 victims are women (as far as I know) do get the critical state of it.
And, no, it was not by a car accident.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
Perhaps you're reading this differently. The amount of people getting sick to the total people is very very low, the reaction isn't proportional to the realities of the ground.

The keyword is 'for now', this is only the initial stage of the outbreak. With the population density that India has and the poor flow control / healthcare, we won't be able to contain it. I worry about the chaos that will ensue If it can't be held back at the initial stage. People won't get treatment for sure. Imagine the kind of numbers that the US is now seeing over here, people will be dying in the streets/homes.

notageek wrote:
If in a lockdown the rich can get better treatment than the rest, then the lockdown is useless at-least for the rich and powerful.

Exactly! that was my response to you saying that the lockdown is primarily to benefit the powerful (old)politicians. They're gonna be mostly safe anyway.

You heard about those infected people jumping quarantine to travel back home? they're rich and can get good treatment at this stage, but the people who they infected on the way, the poor bunch will probably suffer on the floor in some government hospital.

notageek wrote:
How many confirmed infections in India? Some 800? Confirmed deaths about 17? Do you believe these numbers? If so, is it justified to lockdown an entire country of 1.3 billion people?

Again, the keyword is 'for now'. It's just in the initial stages. I won't be surprised if those numbers jump up exponentially in the coming days.

notageek wrote:
If you don't believe these numbers, then how do you know what the lockdown will achieve? It's just a haphazardly planed, kneejerk reaction.

I don't think we test sufficiently to have accurate numbers. Regardless of the actual count, isolation is the low-tech way to limit the spread of the disease. I honestly don't have much faith in recovery once a significant portion of the populace get infected.
What in your opinion should have been done instead?

notageek wrote:
The larger evil is starvation, crippling economic slowdown maybe even homelessness. Also doesn't even help the people it's supposed to help. Read this: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/coronavirus-lockdown-migrants-walk-on-foot-board-buses-at-ups-ghaziabad/articleshow/74860087.cms Watch the sea of people crossing Delhi to UP on foot.

If it goes out of hand, there would be even worse economic slowdown that will take years to recover from. When that happens, homelessness and starvation is gonna get a lot worse.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's getting serious now. There are so many Coah, Tamps, and NL stickers on trucks and cars around here it is amazing. There is even a store in the mall that sells nothing but hats and clothes with these logos of the Mexican state from which you come.

Breitbart wrote:
‘We agreed to have public education campaigns to encourage paisanos (Mexicans living in the U.S.) to not visit during Holy Week,” said Coahuila Governor Miguel Angel Riquelme.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Amity88 wrote:
The keyword is 'for now', this is only the initial stage of the outbreak. With the population density that India has and the poor flow control / healthcare, we won't be able to contain it. I worry about the chaos that will ensue If it can't be held back at the initial stage. People won't get treatment for sure. Imagine the kind of numbers that the US is now seeing over here, people will be dying in the streets/homes.
That's just giving into pure fear mongering.

This outbreak you speak of is just people getting a bit sick with flu (or flu like symptoms).

There are statistics from all over the place (Italy, China, elsewhere) the majority of people have very mild or no symptoms at-all. It's essentially flu. This outbreak isn't any different from a section of population with flu (and that's true any given time). I think you're missing my essential point here, that this is a hoax.

Check the number of people who've died in the worst affected areas. There's no reason for this FUD. Absolutely none.

Amity88 wrote:
Exactly! that was my response to you saying that the lockdown is primarily to benefit the powerful (old)politicians. They're gonna be mostly safe anyway.
If the rich and powerful wont be locked-down and if the poor can't follow the lockdown guidance, there isn't much use of the lockdown is it?

Why have a useless lockdown in the first place?

Amity88 wrote:
You heard about those infected people jumping quarantine to travel back home? they're rich and can get good treatment at this stage, but the people who they infected on the way, the poor bunch will probably suffer on the floor in some government hospital.
You've seemed to completed bought into the government's FUD.

Amity88 wrote:
Again, the keyword is 'for now'. It's just in the initial stages. I won't be surprised if those numbers jump up exponentially in the coming days.
If you don't know how many people have been infected by any reason of accuracy, you don't have a baseline. And if you don't have a baseline, there's no way to tell what a lockdown will achieve in certain terms. Basically what this lockdown achieves is for the government to be seen as taking an action, with no measurable metrics on its effectiveness i.e. government acting without accountability.

Saying "for now" or "later" is completely meaningless, without having any context of accurate numbers.

Amity88 wrote:
I don't think we test sufficiently to have accurate numbers. Regardless of the actual count, isolation is the low-tech way to limit the spread of the disease. I honestly don't have much faith in recovery once a significant portion of the populace get infected.
What in your opinion should have been done instead?
Accuracy is important. Without accuracy, you're just guessing and given the far reaching consequences of the lockdown on population the lockdown is downright irresponsible.

What would I have done? Not a nationwide lockdown for sure. India's government seems to have implemented policies based on Italy's reaction to this (i.e.do all the things Italy did not do) while conveniently ignoring the demographics of India.

90% of India's population is under 60.
Less than 8% of India's population is over 60. Whereas in Italy, it's a staggering 24%

It's because of these numbers I suspect the lockdown is targeted towards protecting the few elite old politicians.

Young people have shown to have mild or no symptoms (carriers) for this disease. Is it surprising that the casualties in Italy were high?

So, why take the learning from Italy and apply to India? Every country is unique.

Honestly I would've not caused a countrywide lockdown. I'd have closed domestic flights and every international traveler quarantined. Released funds to study/research the disease (would've been cheaper than the lockdown and its bailouts) and had taken a selective approach to lockdown.

Amity88 wrote:
If it goes out of hand, there would be even worse economic slowdown that will take years to recover from. When that happens, homelessness and starvation is gonna get a lot worse.

There's a probability that things could've gone out of hand causing an economic slowdown.
There's a definite certainty that the current lockdown will hit the economy hard.


Here's some data for you:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

At it's worst, it has killed 10% of those infected in Italy and most of them were old.

Convert that to numbers India, these numbers have minuscule impact on India.

Also, how many people die in India, everyday? Here's some estimates for you: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fran wrote:
desultory wrote:
Fran wrote:
Naib wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52014023

Well Spain can just fuck off

You're an asshole.
Given the content of the story, Naib's comments seem to be somewhat justified

If you think the act of a few people in country X (publicly denounced and investigated for prosecution by X's authorities) justifies "X can fuck off", then you're another fucking asshole.

Bye.


ORLY...
spain must have a concentration is idiots then

https://www.sudouest.fr/2020/03/25/coronavirus-en-espagne-des-ambulances-transportant-des-malades-caillassees-7363278-10861.php
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Amity88 wrote:
erm67 wrote:
We were just lucky that the biggest outbreak was in a relatively small town like Bergamo and not Milan ... otherwise it could have been just like in Spain.


Spain has lesser cases than Italy. I'm curious why you say that things are worse in Spain?


Because the hotspot were the virus did spread uncontained and with most cases in Italy only has a population of 500k while Madrid 7M, the number of infections in Italy is in fact the number of people hospitalized since we stopped testing people in the 3 most affected regions some time ago when it was clear that the epidemic was widespread. Now that a blood test for 2019-nCov IgG and IgM is available we'll start again testing.
It happened that people tested negative for the swab and feeling sane went to work in sensitive places like retirment houses but become positive just the next day killing a lot of elderly.

The number of persons that have or had COVID-19 in Italy is estimated as between 800k and 1.2M but it is growing a lot slower than other places because luckily the uncontrolled growth happened in a place with a relatively small population and herd immunity will arrive a lot earlier than in Madrid. And most importantly we did not run out of ventilators yet, actually we have now twice as much. In Madrid unfortunately there aren't enough, also because the population is bigger. It could still happen here as well in any moment.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
Amity88 wrote:
erm67 wrote:
We were just lucky that the biggest outbreak was in a relatively small town like Bergamo and not Milan ... otherwise it could have been just like in Spain.


Spain has lesser cases than Italy. I'm curious why you say that things are worse in Spain?


Because the hotspot were the virus did spread uncontained and with most cases in Italy only has a population of 500k while Madrid 7M, the number of infections in Italy is in fact the number of people hospitalized since we stopped testing people in the 3 most affected regions some time ago when it was clear that the epidemic was widespread. Now that a blood test for 2019-nCov IgG and IgM is available we'll start again testing.
It happened that people tested negative for the swab and feeling sane went to work in sensitive places like retirment houses but become positive just the next day killing a lot of elderly.

The number of persons that have or had COVID-19 in Italy is estimated as between 800k and 1.2M but it is growing a lot slower than other places because luckily the uncontrolled growth happened in a place with a relatively small population and herd immunity will arrive a lot earlier than in Madrid. And most importantly we did not run out of ventilators yet, actually we have now twice as much. In Madrid unfortunately there aren't enough, also because the population is bigger. It could still happen here as well in any moment.


Or they're a bit nearer to the vatican.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

my friend suggested to go out like the elephant man with a bag over the head :)
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Must admit, the end of the world seems to be dragging it's arse, to use a modern colloquialism.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mrbassie wrote:

Or they're a bit nearer to the vatican.

Vatican is far away from the outbreak, it started only yesterday with 6 cases in the Vatican, the Pope is still OK :-) but there is still hope... It grows slowly in the rest of Italy.

If NY is going to be worse than Lombardy like the NY Times says it will be really bad ...

Anyway I put a beer in every room today so tonight i will go on a pub crawl ...
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:


1, 2 & 3 are weak strawmen.

Isn't "weak strawman" redundant? Nobody creates a strong strawman, do they? Or better said, if it is strong, it is a steelman, not a strawman.
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richk449
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
At it's worst, it has killed 10% of those infected in Italy and most of them were old.

Convert that to numbers India, these numbers have minuscule impact on India.

Okay, so if I convert 10% of the population to India, that works out to, yep, 10% of the population. Do you really consider 10% of the population minuscule?
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Naib
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
notageek wrote:
At it's worst, it has killed 10% of those infected in Italy and most of them were old.

Convert that to numbers India, these numbers have minuscule impact on India.

Okay, so if I convert 10% of the population to India, that works out to, yep, 10% of the population. Do you really consider 10% of the population minuscule?
This is the nation that just lets dead bodies float down the river, where daughters are killed so that the family can have son's... its not that 10% of the population is minuscule, its that the gov'n doesn't care.
Its going to rip through that country, that dense country where the demographic is mostly below 30, but that above is going to die or be taken out of the workforce and it won't even swamp their healthcare system because the majority do not have access.
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ian.au
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What on earth is the point of throwing these percentage figures around? Nobody knows the infection rate so they're meaningless. It's pretty important on to consider the early mortality rates relate to presentations with advanced symptoms that required hospitalisation.

IMO Italy and Spain are terrible canaries for this coal mine - both societies (and esp. in the regions) have multiple generations living in the one home, together with highly mobile young populations and a large transit of tourists. Worse, the virus started spreading in late 2019, just before all the large families congregated for their traditional large Christmas celebrations.

The only really relevant fact from the Italian Data to date is that 94% of the *known* infected cases range between asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic, even with a relatively aged population and the most beneficial transmission environment.

This virus is really bad for a small and reasonably easy to identify section of the community; like notageek, I'm unconvinced that global socialism is the answer to this problem.
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