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flysideways
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DW wrote:
Although Singapore is vulnerability as a densely populated global hub, it has only 404 active coronavirus cases and two deaths to date. Emerging just in time for Chinese Lunar Year, the novel coronavirus could have proved catastrophic to the tiny city-state. Yet, despite the risk of hurting economic relations with its third biggest trading partner, by February 1 Singapore had already imposed travel restrictions on passengers from China. This contravened the WHO's advisory that travel bans were not necessary at that point.


Guidance from the World Health Organization should be better than this.
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pjp
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
The idea is that the lockdown wipes out the transmission, so you are starting with a low infection rate. When you lift it, the transmission rate will go back up, but you can be ready to fight each small outbreak, backtracking and quickly testing anyone who might have caught it, and quickly isolating them. Search for “the hammer and the dance”.
Right, It is basically going back to the initial outbreak each time with the hope that it can be managed. Which may not have a singificant impact on the percentages of deaths. People were dying before systems were overwhelmed. The majority of people seem to have interpreted freedom of the press to be a reference to a well-lubricated and unaccountable Federal Reserve. Hopefully they like their choice.


erm67 wrote:
Doctors And Nurses Say More People Are Dying Of COVID-19 In The US Than We Know]
I believe that is the "buzz" site which has less accuracy than The Onion.
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erm67
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hopefully.
Iit's now official the first case of COVID-19 in Italy was a man hospitalized the 1 of January 2020, and there is still no connection with China, so it was spreading in Europe already in 2019.
For the moment we can still blame that China annunced new disease to the WHO too late. Closing borders not always work.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.09320
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Jaglover
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Finally an Italian virus then. All other SARS and Co. are from China.

Even this.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
I believe that is the "buzz" site which has less accuracy than The Onion.


The Onion is definitely more accurate than buzzfeed.
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erm67
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaglover wrote:
Finally an Italian virus then. All other SARS and Co. are from China.

Nope the Virus is genetically identicall to the virus from Wuhan, and it started there probably in November already. But it reached the west probably at the beginning of December, not only Italy. the link has not been found yet but they need to exhumate the bodies of some of the misterious pneumonia deaths in december to further search and unfortunately at the moment it is not possible.
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figueroa
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
Nope the Virus is genetically identicall to the virus from Wuhan, and it started there probably in November already. But it reached the west probably at the beginning of December, not only Italy. the link has not been found yet but they need to exhumate the bodies of some of the misterious pneumonia deaths in december to further search and unfortunately at the moment it is not possible.


Everyone should really listen to this podcase, The Cause of Things, episode 14: https://sovereignnations.com/2020/03/19/virus-lag-measures/

Highlight: "There is a high probability that coronavirus has been present in the United States since December of 2019, and the figures show it. It has been in Europe and in other areas throughout the world for several months before the testing and reporting was effectively applied."
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

figueroa wrote:
erm67 wrote:
Nope the Virus is genetically identicall to the virus from Wuhan, and it started there probably in November already. But it reached the west probably at the beginning of December, not only Italy. the link has not been found yet but they need to exhumate the bodies of some of the misterious pneumonia deaths in december to further search and unfortunately at the moment it is not possible.


Everyone should really listen to this podcase, The Cause of Things, episode 14: https://sovereignnations.com/2020/03/19/virus-lag-measures/

Highlight: "There is a high probability that coronavirus has been present in the United States since December of 2019, and the figures show it. It has been in Europe and in other areas throughout the world for several months before the testing and reporting was effectively applied."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmZqb2VVc48
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Jaglover
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lots of Chinese workers in Lombardy, travelling back and forth. Who knows when exactly the virus in Wuhan started. Maybe in October?
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ulenrich
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaglover wrote:
Lots of Chinese workers in Lombardy, travelling back and forth. Who knows when exactly the virus in Wuhan started. Maybe in October?
The virus may have started several times over years but ended endemicly in a poor village.
In Germany since a few days we get more dead people: At first only the young and active importers from Ischgl got the pandemic, so the dead bodies count was low for a while. Also the generations in my homeland don't live together as in Italy.
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etnull
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaglover wrote:
Finally an Italian virus then. All other SARS and Co. are from China.

Even this.
VOA article about some 'mysterious' illness, which some 'independent experts' linked to China? It's like giving RT link in which they accuse the US of everything.
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ulenrich
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

figueroa wrote:
The Cause of Things, episode 14: https://sovereignnations.com/2020/03/19/virus-lag-measures/

Highlight: "There is a high probability that coronavirus has been present in the United States since December of 2019, and the figures show it. It has been in Europe and in other areas throughout the world for several months before the testing and reporting was effectively applied."
With some data applied you can back calculate:
M=mortality percentage
D=days since the first person infected
R=rate spreading per day
M * D^R / 100 = dead people

for example : 15% growth per day for 105 days:
0.6 * 1.15^105 / 100 = 14172 dead people

If you would know R and M for sure you could provide the starting date exactly.
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flysideways
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What are the orders of magnitude for the variations of your M and R?
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flysideways
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ABC News on Jan 21 wrote:
The first case of a new coronavirus that's sickened nearly 300 people in Asia has been reported in a patient in Washington state, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday at a news conference. ...

The Washington state patient, a man in his 30s, had traveled to Wuhan, but said he did not visit the market in question or know anyone who had the virus.

"This is certainly not a moment for panic or high anxiety. It is a moment for vigilance," Gov. Jay Inslee said during a new conference in Washington on Tuesday.

"The risk is low to residents in Washington," he added.
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flysideways
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CDC wrote:
History of Quarantine

PBS wrote:
A Short History of Quarantine

CNN wrote:
These states have implemented stay-at-home orders. Here's what that means for you


I'd post one for local stay at home orders in the states not yet locking down the whole state, but my google fu fails me.
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desultory
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old School wrote:
pjp wrote:
I believe that is the "buzz" site which has less accuracy than The Onion.


The Onion is definitely more accurate than buzzfeed.
It is not that hard, really, after all how many stories has buzzfeed run that turned out to be, technically, prophetic?
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flysideways
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Relevance?

Hall county, TX with a total population of 3,353 and density of 3.8 per square mile gets an F. New York county, NY with a population of 1,628,701 and a density of 69,467 per square mile (that's 401 square feet per person, anthill) gets an A.

Now three different poor bastards in Hall county probably had to drive 60 miles round trip a couple of times to get supplies to settle the wife. They each made that drive alone in their pickup truck, well except for their best friend, the dog, and the truck gun. Those guys alone doubled the average travel in the county.

Meanwhile in New York county not quite as many people crammed into the subway for that 3 mile ride where they all coughed and hacked upon each other.

Metrics, schmetrics.

edit: bad math


Last edited by flysideways on Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:50 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flysideways wrote:
Relevance?


Aye, that is nonsense.
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flysideways
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apparently a body bag takes up about 25 square feet.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flysideways wrote:
Apparently a body bag takes up about 25 square feet.


Well, maybe for Rosie O'Donnell.

Side note, and some very sad news... Kathy Griffin was lying about having corona virus (to no one's surprise). She had stomach issues after having been in Mexico.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flysideways wrote:
Now three different poor bastards in Hall county probably had to drive 60 miles round trip a couple of times to get supplies to settle the wife. They each made that drive alone in their pickup truck, well except for their best friend, the dog, and the truck gun.

How do THEY know?

Crap, they are tracking us!
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

figueroa wrote:
flysideways wrote:
Now three different poor bastards in Hall county probably had to drive 60 miles round trip a couple of times to get supplies to settle the wife. They each made that drive alone in their pickup truck, well except for their best friend, the dog, and the truck gun.

How do THEY know?

Crap, they are tracking us!


If you leave your cell phone on, it's a GPS ping.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And now the PM has the plague
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flysideways
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Beeb wrote:
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said it was "suspending the entry of foreign nationals" because of the "rapid spread of Covid-19 across the world".


8)
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

John-Boy wrote:
And now the PM has the plague
Knowing the Coronavirus is spreading faster than the flu and that we all (70%) will get it: At what moment in history this kind of news is seen a nothing-burger kind of .

But what would be relevant news:
If any head of state getting the infection while he was secured by a specialist assistant for disinfection. This would let us know that any kind of contact can't be secured by ordinary people.
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