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Jaglover
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/24/21-million-chinese-cellphone-users-disappear-in-three-months-of-pandemic/

Did you know this virus also kills cell phone accounts?
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flysideways
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Coronavirus: Sadiq Khan warns 'stop Tube travel or more will die'


Quote:
Coronavirus in NYC: Subway service cutbacks lead to packed commute


Different places experience different challenges to social distancing.

The most fascinating subway ride I have ever had was in Shanghai. Those are the longest string of cars I have seen. Wonderful for people watching.
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e3k
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

now seriously. what is your tactics?
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erm67
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

e3k wrote:


according to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing


From the same page:

Quote:
In Germany, the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians said on March 2, that it had a capacity for about 12,000 tests per day


German population: 83M /12000 per day = 6916 / 365 = 18,9 years to test all the German population.

SARS-2 tests are just a weapon of mass distraction, there are severals component in a test kit BTW only for some of them export is restricted, but some politicians boast the arrival of just a component of the kit as the arrival of the entire kit.
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e3k
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yes erm67 it is just scam. also they act now influenced by fear of the virus but the economy shutdown will cause much more damage than the virus if they do not start it gradually soon.

by the they have now a more detailed symptoms table at wikipedia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covid-19

Quote:
Symptom[31] %
Fever 87.9
Dry cough 67.7
Fatigue 38.1
Sputum production 33.4
Loss of smell[32] 30 to 66
Shortness of breath 18.6
Muscle or joint pain 14.8
Sore throat 13.9
Headache 13.6
Chills 11.4
Nausea or vomiting 5.0
Nasal congestion 4.8
Diarrhea 3.7 to 31[33]
Haemoptysis 0.9
Conjunctival congestion 0.8

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erm67
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you have a dry cough and the back of the throat hurts you should self-isolate, and stay away from elderly. Fever appears only later or there is no fever at all. Everybody agrees that the back of the throat hurts a lot, the virus will than proceed in a couple of days and attack the lungs, most of the times both lungs at the same time, while usually bacterial pneuomonia attacks only one. If the lungs hurts and you have difficulties breathing ask for help because its the viral pneuomia that is dangerous.

28000 out of 69000 persons positive to COVID-19 in italy have no or mild symptoms currently. So there is nothing to worry util you can breath of course. Plus several hundred of thousand Italian that already had COVID-19 but were never tested.
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Last edited by erm67 on Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:28 pm; edited 2 times in total
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

@Fran

telemadrid wrote:

Según ha estimado el Gobierno regional, necesitan más de 13 millones de mascarillas, 60.000 monos impermeables, 60.000 gafas de protección, más de 7.000 cajas de guantes, 586 respiradores, 315 monitores y más de 200 camas. En cuanto a los test, ha solicitado 70.000 equipos de detección.


How do you explain that Madrid claims to need so many ventilators? Italy is only using 3800 ventilators and there are a lot more cases.
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Naib
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well got my data working... can subset > 10deaths...
working with a logistic function to mimic the deaths...

Italy is coming out at just under 12500 deaths, 40days after reaching 10
Spain, just under 9000 after 30days after reaching 10
France just under 4000 after 30days after reaching 10

Now USA and UK are odd... too early for sigmoid characteristics to really show
UK with only 11 days since reaching 10... 650 after 20days???
US with 21 days since reaching 10, but silly steap... in excess of 100million... really? or way too soon to fit to...

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1E81JPW0SM0BSlNLqoZh4ISvdYYTes9ws
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richk449
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Naib wrote:
Well got my data working... can subset > 10deaths...
working with a logistic function to mimic the deaths...

Italy is coming out at just under 12500 deaths, 40days after reaching 10
Spain, just under 9000 after 30days after reaching 10
France just under 4000 after 30days after reaching 10

Now USA and UK are odd... too early for sigmoid characteristics to really show
UK with only 11 days since reaching 10... 650 after 20days???
US with 21 days since reaching 10, but silly steap... in excess of 10million... really? or way too soon to fit to...

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1E81JPW0SM0BSlNLqoZh4ISvdYYTes9ws

Definitely not 10 M, that would be 3 % of the population.

Also, expect US to be regional. See the most recent financial times plot (same link as earlier). The also include a chart by region. California, which has been in lockdown for a while now, is growing very slowly. New York, which still has not gone into full lockdown ( I think?) is going up crazy fast. So it makes no sense to apply NY growth rate to California.

Edit: ft link https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Also, where does your data come from?

Edit2: I can think of two reasons for deviation from exponential growth: change of the exponential growth constants( i.e. reduction of R0 due to social distancing, or “saturation” i.e. everyone is already infected, so the number of cases can’t grow. Do the two causes look different in the data? Can your model separate them out?
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
It is not a conspiracy theory, it's math.
But math is a conspiracy theory, or at least a conspiracy of theories. Just think of home many people put how much work into how many theories to establish the fundamental math that you used there.

flysideways wrote:
SARS-2, keep up with the etymology.
The formal release name is actually "SARS 2: Electric Boogaloo", though it is commonly known as Tom Hanks Disease, Trudeau-Elba Syndrome, Weinstein Remover, Shutdown Everything Disorder (thought, technically, that is an induced syndrome, not a direct effect) and several other names.

Fran wrote:
Naib wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52014023

Well Spain can just fuck off

You're an asshole.
Given the content of the story, Naib's comments seem to be somewhat justified, your comments rather less so. You can disagree without engaging in personal attacks, or you can find some place else to have your disagreements.
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ian.au
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meanwhile in Australia... 2,252 cases now. 197 requiring hospitalisation currently, 8 people have died.

The ages of the fatalities to date are, 78(m), 95(f), 82(m), 77(f), 90(f), 86(m), 81(f), 7?(f) (no data yet, 'a woman in her '70's'), 3 deaths directly from a cruise ship and a fourth from in-hospital transmission from one of those.

Predominantly cases traced back to returning overseas travellers, although an increasing % of PTP contact is now suspected. I say suspected, because we only test symptomatic persons who present at a hospital / test centre, so really no idea how many people had a minor set of symptoms and put it down to a season-change allergy or flu and have been running around happily spreading the love, and who may well have now recovered or remain active asymptomatic carriers.

The Govt response has been about 1 stop short of martial law, but give them another week. Laws against congregating in groups > 10 etc... I'm sure it's the SSE, but the result here has been tens of thousands of newly unemployed, frightened people queuing around the block to get into the unemployment office. (Obviously the online services melt hourly, so turning up is the only option. Frankly, if not in the risk group, they'd be as well off at work. If large groups are a bad idea, this is a crazy, panic-inducing act of fuckwittery, what will the transmission rates from these queues/interactions be I wonder?

Clearly the disease is bad, and for a small section of the community, really bad, but the cure is likely to have people departing buildings via the windows / rooftops for quite some time to come.

Looking at the ages of the admittedly unfortunate fatalities, over 3 months I wonder what the chances were a couple of those would have toppled off the perch in any event.

I seriously hope this craziness is to buy some time to build ventilators and test an entire population to determine an actual statistical basis for a better informed response.
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erm67
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

desultory wrote:
erm67 wrote:
It is not a conspiracy theory, it's math.
But math is a conspiracy theory, or at least a conspiracy of theories. Just think of home many people put how much work into how many theories to establish the fundamental math that you used there.

I have to agree, like in the case of conspiracy theories also in math most of the times the shortest path gives the correct result:
COVID-19 will infect 70% of the population of a country and <1% will die, that is the limit of the function over time, clearly there are contorted ways to get to the same result.

Italy 56M *.007 = 392000 deaths distributed in a few years (hopefully)

However since according to a recent study the number of italians that has or already had COVID-19 is close to 1M, the lethality is more close to 0.5% if there is no ICU overflow like in Italy. In Spain might be higher because of the ICU overflow.

Italy 56M *.0035 = 196000 deaths distributed in a few years (hopefully)
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Last edited by erm67 on Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nooooo



Damn you coronavirus ! Damn you to Hell !


He's going to have to queue up for treatment and everything
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Proinsias
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

John-Boy wrote:
Nooooo



Damn you coronavirus ! Damn you to Hell !


He's going to have to queue up for treatment and everything

On the plus side Prince Andrew doesn't recall ever meeting him.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
We often see images of civilians wearing face masks in the media, apparently to protect themselves against respiratory viruses. However, there is very little evidence that the use of face masks by healthy people in normal social situations has any effect. On the contrary, if used incorrectly, they can increase the risk of infection and disease.


https://www.fhi.no/en/id/influensa/seasonal-influenza/influenza_advice/Not-recommended-to-use-face-masks-outside-healthcare-service/
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Proinsias wrote:
John-Boy wrote:
Nooooo



Damn you coronavirus ! Damn you to Hell !


He's going to have to queue up for treatment and everything

On the plus side Prince Andrew doesn't recall ever meeting him.


I see what you did there.
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erm67
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

e3k wrote:
Quote:
We often see images of civilians wearing face masks in the media, apparently to protect themselves against respiratory viruses. However, there is very little evidence that the use of face masks by healthy people in normal social situations has any effect. On the contrary, if used incorrectly, they can increase the risk of infection and disease.


https://www.fhi.no/en/id/influensa/seasonal-influenza/influenza_advice/Not-recommended-to-use-face-masks-outside-healthcare-service/


Most of the people wearing masks in the queues at supermarkets are ridiculous .... really.

Wearing a facial mask with the nose outside is like wearing underwear with the penis outside
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the only real solution to stop the virus is to kill all people.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
e3k wrote:
Quote:
We often see images of civilians wearing face masks in the media, apparently to protect themselves against respiratory viruses. However, there is very little evidence that the use of face masks by healthy people in normal social situations has any effect. On the contrary, if used incorrectly, they can increase the risk of infection and disease.


https://www.fhi.no/en/id/influensa/seasonal-influenza/influenza_advice/Not-recommended-to-use-face-masks-outside-healthcare-service/


Most of the people wearing masks in the queues at supermarkets are ridiculous .... really.


I picked up a couple of essentials (beer) this morning, several cases of scarves wrapped around faces.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It would be nice if we could laugh about this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RorxX4iQ0WA
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really hoped she washed those underpants first
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richk449
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The good news is that we seem to have bent the curve in the US.

The bad news is that we seem to have bent it in the wrong direction.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

e3k wrote:
the only real solution to stop the virus is to kill all people.


But if that happens at one short time, I can see natural gas relieved in the earth atmosphere killing all life ever existed and still exists.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

John-Boy wrote:
I really hoped she washed those underpants first


Actually it is a brilliant solution, washable, it covers the face and head, can be washed with alchool or in the washing mashine at high temperature.

The paper masks can be used only once and must be destoyed when you come back home. Washable masks are better but difficult to find.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The paper masks can be used only once and must be destoyed when you come back home.

What's the danger. If contaminated with virus then 3+ days of no use should neutralize them. Hang them up outdoors in direct sunlight and you can be sure they can be used again in three days. No?
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