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PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Doctor wrote:
I don't want the EU to exist at all. The idea of forcing a superstate on people who voted to reject it is simply abhorrent.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

asturm wrote:
The Doctor wrote:
I don't want the EU to exist at all. The idea of forcing a superstate on people who voted to reject it is simply abhorrent.
Sure, go away. Just remember that, geographically, you can't just relocate.
99.99% sure you meant "can relocate" so I shall assume such.

The fact is that the EU is very much reliant even in the US. Article 13, the copywrite directive, for example has the potential to seriously impact the rest of the world. You can't escape the consequences of the EU's decisions by simply moving.
asturm wrote:
The rest of us will be taking front seats to watching the demise of the UK, its downfall into irrelevance or becoming a vassal state to the US. But maybe, just maybe, the elites owning your newspapers that tricked you into voting against your interest will succeed in raising a money laundering utopia, a tax haven like no other, with Trump golf courses plastering former farmland.
I wouldn't be too sure of that. When the UK leaves the economy may take a year or two to recover. However, in the short term you can expect to see the fishing industry come back much stronger and explosive growth in other areas as well. One of the biggest gripes of UK fisherman was the EU taking away territorial fishing grounds that have been British for centuries. These fishing grounds will be restored. Less fuel to fish, more fish. Intimidate impact. The lost imports from the EU can and will be easily replaced with other trading partners. The USA in particular is eager to open new trade relations. Like it or not the UK has survived for centuries and is one of the oldest governments still standing. The UK doesn't need the EU.

The EU's on the other hand may well find itself in a bit of a pickle long term. They will loose the London stock exchange, access to the pound, and the third largest net contributor, and substantial customers. Sure, the bureaucrats will deny this is a problem. But the fact is that there is a lot of money in money so the stock exchange really hurts, the pound is a stable currency that can be used to help keep the euro stable, and funding just is important. Lets also not forget that a lot of people are really unhappy with the EU and may start demanding that their countries also leave. We have seen that sentiment growing in many countries, including Germany and France, for a while now. A minority today but after a successful brexit? That depends on how savvy the politicians are.

You can consume propaganda all day, but unless you actually look at the primary sources your going to be in trouble. The EU is scared. Their actions prove it. They are refusing to renegotiate May's deal. The fact that the EU is trying to force the UK to accept the deal even after voting to reject it is the act of a dictatorship, not a democratic system. The deal never had any legal force. It was proposed and rejected. A new deal is the only option. Even if it is as simple as agreeing to almost nothing at all. But it will not happen because a successful brexit will undermine the EU's authority and expose the lies and dirty laundry.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Doctor wrote:
You can consume propaganda all day, but unless you actually look at the primary sources your going to be in trouble. The EU is scared. Their actions prove it. They are refusing to renegotiate May's deal.

Why should they? :lol: It is purely your government's failure to make up its mind. The red lines made clear from the start that you could not partake in the single market and customs union. The red lines are your major obstacle to get anything else - of not for them, other 'softer' deals would have always been possible. Boris does not have a majority for May's deal, he also does not have a majority for no deal. Counting the numbers in parliament, he is in an even weaker position than she was. The ERG made clear that even without the backstop now they are not going to approve of a deal. So what are the grounds for new discussions?

You're not even finished preparing your legislative for the exit, something that was originally planned for March. Are you going to impose direct rule in Northern Ireland to be able to implement the necessary changes? Good luck with that.

The Doctor wrote:
The fact that the EU is trying to force the UK to accept the deal even after voting to reject it is the act of a dictatorship, not a democratic system. The deal never had any legal force. It was proposed and rejected. A new deal is the only option. Even if it is as simple as agreeing to almost nothing at all. But it will not happen because a successful brexit will undermine the EU's authority and expose the lies and dirty laundry.

No, they don't force you to take the deal. You decide if you take it or leave it, but it seems your government is unable to do even that.

The EU is not *obliged* to deal with you at all cost, and refusing to give you a sweetheart deal is in the best interest of the union. Don't be stupid and confuse that with 'dictatorship', that rethoric clearly shows what you consider your 'primary sources'. The EU was no 'dictatorship' when it acted in your best interests in trade negotiations - now you face it from the other side of the table.

Refusing the backstop was the stupidest possible decision the UK could take. It means it can not prepare for a smooth exit, and will be desperate to make trade deals. You don't want to be in that place to be an equal partner to e.g. the US. It won't be easy. It won't be fast, unless you give up the NHS, give up your quality farming, and much more.

The Doctor wrote:
99.99% sure you meant "can relocate" so I shall assume such.

No, your little island is not going to swim away.

Certainly, Farage has said he would just leave the UK if Brexit was going to be a failure. He seems to be in a position to do so.

The Doctor wrote:
asturm wrote:
The Doctor wrote:
There is no other reason to take a hard brexit off the table.

The strategy to just walk away from negotiations only works when you can go back to the status quo. In this case, when UK walks away from it, you go back to nothing; from trade relations covering far above 100 countries to almost zero; from an elevated status as an influental member of the biggest trading bloc to an outsider.
Not at all. If something like the backstop is presented that is objectively harmful to the UK then walking away and accepting the consequences is a very strong position.

Also, the UK economy is a very large percentage of the EU economy. Any brexit hurts the EU, hard brexit especially since it doesn't give any opportunity for businesses to adjust.

Stubbornness is not power. The EU will take a small hit, sure. In the UK, it will be much worse - that's just the reality of this power balance. Everyone was aware of that, including May, which is why she only used that rethoric when she'd returned back home from negotiations.

Brexit is, and you serve as another example, the victory of opinion over expertise.
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Last edited by asturm on Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

asturm wrote:
Why should they? :lol: It is purely your government's failure to make up its mind. The red lines made clear from the start that you could not partake in the single market and customs union. Boris does not have a majority for May's deal, he also does not have a majority for no deal. Counting the numbers in parliament, he is in an even weaker position than she was. So what are the grounds for new discussions?
Because the offer was rejected. Plain and simple. That means both sides have to give up something until you get something that is acceptable. That is how negotiation works :roll:

asturm wrote:
No, they don't force you to take the deal.


Bull. Shit. The deal was rejected and every time the EU insisted that parliament vote again and give the right answer. Claiming that doesn't constitute inappropriate behavior is unbelievably arrogant.

asturm wrote:
The EU is not *obliged* to deal with you at all cost, and refusing to give you a sweetheart deal is in the best interest of the union. Don't be stupid and confuse that with 'dictatorship', that rethoric clearly shows what you consider your 'primary sources'.
Are you bothering to read what everyone is saying? No one is claiming the EU should give a sweetheart deal. The proposed deal was unacceptable and now no modification whatever will be considered.

Clearly if the backstop is unacceptable remove the backstop. Then the question is what does the EU needs to do that. And so on. But no, that won't even be explored because it is May's deal or no deal. That is the action of a dictatorship, not a reasonable entity.

Only propaganda writers think the UK is going for a sweetheart deal. Everyone else understands it doesn't work that way and just wants an equitable deal or none at all.

asturm wrote:
Refusing the backstop was the stupidest possible decision the UK could take.
An open ended arrangement that leaves the UK subject to all decisions and financial obligations of the EU with no say in the EU or mechanism to exit the arrangement except by the will of the EU? The backstop is the type of thing one finds in a surrender treaty, not a treaty between nations. Many experts have said that. Why would anyone ever expect that the backstop would be acceptable? I include May in that.

Would you agree to enter into a deal with Russia where you are subject to Russian law and pay Russia money and no exit is allowed except by the unilateral action of Russia? No? So why would the UK accept that from the EU?

asturm wrote:
Brexit is, and you serve as another example, the victory of opinion over expertise.
We shall see what happens. If the economic forecasts are anything like accurate the UK takes a hit for a few years and rebounds. The EU may not be as lucky. Strong predictors are that brexit is going to have social consequences as well as economic ones. Ireland, Belgium, and the Netherlands all stand to lose substantial trade. Along with Germany and France, I might add. In the short term patches may keep things rolling but long term a single European economy, enforced by the euro, is much less able to respond to shock. As for the social ones, you have already seen a rise in anti-EU parties following the brexit vote. Imagine how much more support they will have if they can say "See? The UK is better off now! We should leave too!"

So wait and see what happens. Then we will know who is right.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Doctor wrote:
Like it or not the UK has survived for centuries and is one of the oldest governments still standing.

You may have noticed the empire is gone.

The Doctor wrote:
Because the offer was rejected. Plain and simple. That means both sides have to give up something until you get something that is acceptable. That is how negotiation works :roll:

Negotiations on eye level. These are not. The red lines were limiting that from the get go. The backstop was the only idea the UK were able to come up with to make the red lines work, and it was a major giveaway by the EU, that actually many member states were not happy with at all.

The Doctor wrote:
The deal was rejected and every time the EU insisted that parliament vote again and give the right answer. Claiming that doesn't constitute inappropriate behavior is unbelievably arrogant.

No, your government insisted that parliament vote again and give the right answer. They instead could have given up red lines. They could have crossed party lines. Alas, Tories prioritised party over country. Like it or not, the slim majority for Brexit never gave any government a mandate for the hardest possible exit, and the standoff in Westminster is a reflection of that.

I don't even know why *you* insist on getting a deal. If we were to believe you can do perfectly well on your own, why do you blame the EU for calling your bluff? Let's all see how bad your future deals are going to be. 8)
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seriously?

The EU point blank refused to reopen negotiations after the first failure and said it was the deal. No discussion of the red lines. Just point blank refusal. Boris certainly isn't holding to them and yet still point blank refusal to even talk about talking.

Some fantasy world you live in.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Doctor wrote:
Seriously?

Yes, seriously.

The Doctor wrote:
The EU point blank refused to reopen negotiations after the first failure and said it was the deal. No discussion of the red lines. Just point blank refusal. Boris certainly isn't holding to them and yet still point blank refusal to even talk about talking.

The EU made clear the weak position Boris is in does not give him any leverage to reopen the deal, save for changes to the political declaration. It was *always* clear that removing the red lines would make something else possible. But first and foremost, renegotiations aren't even possible without further delaying Brexit until well into 2020. Of course, it is not in Boris' interest to do that, his only goal is to get a majority in the upcoming snap elections.

The sooner you realise the power imbalance, the better you understand the history of the Brexit negotiations so far, in present and future. Don't believe in fairy tales!
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On a stage in the history museum of the English Republic two robots declaim above dialog:
british communication with abroad
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