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| Who will win the U.S. general election on Tuesday? |
| Definitely Obama |
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18% |
[ 6 ] |
| Probably Obama |
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46% |
[ 15 ] |
| Unsure |
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12% |
[ 4 ] |
| Probably Romney |
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9% |
[ 3 ] |
| Definitely Romney |
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9% |
[ 3 ] |
| Contested |
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3% |
[ 1 ] |
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| Total Votes : 32 |
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| Author |
Message |
wswartzendruber
Veteran
Joined: 23 Mar 2004
Posts: 1244
Location: ID, USA
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 Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:53 am Post subject: Who Will Win the U.S. General Election on Tuesday? |
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| I'm unsure, myself. |
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McGruff
Tux's lil' helper
Joined: 28 Dec 2004
Posts: 148
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 1:58 am Post subject: |
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Obama has maintained a decisive lead in electoral college votes throughout the campaign (according to Nate Silver). The bookies seem to agree. Fox and the Romney team are desperate to convince people they have "momentum" but it's just not happening. Obama even seems to be getting a small bounce after Sandy.
PS: I'm betting avatars on an Obama win with anyone who wants to take it. For three months the loser has to display an avatar of the winner's choosing.
Last edited by McGruff on Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:01 am; edited 1 time in total |
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wswartzendruber
Veteran
Joined: 23 Mar 2004
Posts: 1244
Location: ID, USA
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:01 am Post subject: |
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| So would you say that Obama is definitely going to win? |
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McGruff
Tux's lil' helper
Joined: 28 Dec 2004
Posts: 148
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:44 am Post subject: |
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| I think so, yes. |
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pjp
Administrator
Joined: 16 Apr 2002
Posts: 17205
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:59 am Post subject: |
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Regardless of the winner, the US loses. The loss is simply greater if Obama is reelected.
_________________
The whole system has to go. The modern criminal justice system is incompatible with Neuroscience. --Sapolsky |
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Old School
Apprentice
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
Posts: 240
Location: West Bank of the Coast Fork
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:25 am Post subject: |
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Romney with a 6 pt. popular victory nationally, and an electoral landslide. Romney will win in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa. Obama will take the commie Northeast and Left Coast.
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The further a society drifts from truth, the more it will hate those who speak it.
George Orwell
It just keeps getting better |
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wswartzendruber
Veteran
Joined: 23 Mar 2004
Posts: 1244
Location: ID, USA
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:48 am Post subject: |
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| FUCK!!! Obama's gonna win this one. There's a 94% correlation between the Redskins winning their last home game before the election and the incumbent party keeping the White House. The Redskins are gonna play the Panthers, and there's no way the Redskins are going to lose. |
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McGruff
Tux's lil' helper
Joined: 28 Dec 2004
Posts: 148
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:22 am Post subject: |
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| Old School wrote: | | Romney with a 6 pt. popular victory nationally, and an electoral landslide. Romney will win in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa. Obama will take the commie Northeast and Left Coast. |
So you gonna take the bet..? |
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pjp
Administrator
Joined: 16 Apr 2002
Posts: 17205
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:27 am Post subject: |
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| Old School wrote: | | Romney with a 6 pt. popular victory nationally, and an electoral landslide. Romney will win in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa. Obama will take the commie Northeast and Left Coast. |
Landslide seems overly optimistic.
But looking at a timezone breakdown of the states which will decide the outcome (bold seem questionable):
Eastern: FL, NH, OH, PA, VA
Central: IA, MN, WI
Mountain: CO
Pacific: NV
206: Starting with what seems likely.
251: + FL (29) & VA (13). IMO, if he doesn't win these, he's done.
269: + OH (18)
289: + PA (20)
Given that those are all eastern, we'll likely know early what happens. If he wins OH but not PA, he'll likely still win with CO. Though CO has seen a lot of ex-pats from California, so its possible the state has gone over the deep end. Also IMO, Central doesn't seem likely, nor Pacific.
_________________
The whole system has to go. The modern criminal justice system is incompatible with Neuroscience. --Sapolsky |
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sikpuppy
n00b
Joined: 12 Jun 2012
Posts: 34
Location: Central Coast, NSW
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:30 am Post subject: |
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| No "Don't care" option. Or, indeed, "Who's Romney, is he an animorphological sheep, do people vote for animals in your elections, if so I choose to vote for the girly warewolf in Teen Wolf, the one with the big tits.". |
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pjp
Administrator
Joined: 16 Apr 2002
Posts: 17205
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:44 am Post subject: |
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| sikpuppy wrote: | | No "Don't care" option. |
That option was provided by not having to participate at all. So, "don't care" is obviously inaccurate.
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The whole system has to go. The modern criminal justice system is incompatible with Neuroscience. --Sapolsky |
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sikpuppy
n00b
Joined: 12 Jun 2012
Posts: 34
Location: Central Coast, NSW
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:49 am Post subject: |
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| pjp wrote: | | sikpuppy wrote: | | No "Don't care" option. |
That option was provided by not having to participate at all. So, "don't care" is obviously inaccurate. |
No, I really don't care. Perfectly accurate  |
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tylerwylie
Guru
Joined: 19 Sep 2004
Posts: 458
Location: /US/Georgia
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 5:36 am Post subject: |
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| More people vote for nobody than anyone else. Nobody wins. |
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notageek
Tux's lil' helper
Joined: 05 Jun 2008
Posts: 131
Location: MA, USA
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 5:41 am Post subject: |
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Thank you for your insight.
_________________
"Defeat is a state of mind. No one is ever defeated, until defeat has been accepted as a reality." -- Bruce Lee |
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McGruff
Tux's lil' helper
Joined: 28 Dec 2004
Posts: 148
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 6:51 am Post subject: |
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| Two people voted "definitely Romney". If you really meant that why not take the bet? |
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notageek
Tux's lil' helper
Joined: 05 Jun 2008
Posts: 131
Location: MA, USA
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 8:38 am Post subject: |
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What's interesting is, nobody is voting for "Probably Romney."
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"Defeat is a state of mind. No one is ever defeated, until defeat has been accepted as a reality." -- Bruce Lee |
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marens
Apprentice
Joined: 05 Aug 2004
Posts: 173
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 9:38 am Post subject: |
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https://forums.gentoo.org/viewtopic-p-6919032-highlight-.html#6919032 as written in january in a thread about "Winner of the Iowa Carcass"
| Deutschlandfunk wrote: |
Bla bla bla Romney bla bla Obama will stay anyway bla bla
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If English was good enough for Jesus, then it's good enough for you! |
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juniper
l33t
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 763
Location: EU
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:12 am Post subject: |
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| mcgruff wrote: | | Old School wrote: | | Romney with a 6 pt. popular victory nationally, and an electoral landslide. Romney will win in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa. Obama will take the commie Northeast and Left Coast. |
So you gonna take the bet..? |
bet, bet, bet, bet, bet, bet!!! |
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sikpuppy
n00b
Joined: 12 Jun 2012
Posts: 34
Location: Central Coast, NSW
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:47 am Post subject: |
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| Buk buk buk bwork. |
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juniper
l33t
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 763
Location: EU
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:04 pm Post subject: |
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| i pick probably obama. |
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Old School
Apprentice
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
Posts: 240
Location: West Bank of the Coast Fork
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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| mcgruff wrote: | | Old School wrote: | | Romney with a 6 pt. popular victory nationally, and an electoral landslide. Romney will win in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa. Obama will take the commie Northeast and Left Coast. |
So you gonna take the bet..? |
Yeah, I'll take you up on the bet. 
_________________
The further a society drifts from truth, the more it will hate those who speak it.
George Orwell
It just keeps getting better |
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Prenj
n00b
Joined: 20 Nov 2011
Posts: 16
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 1:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Goldman Sachs. |
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McGruff
Tux's lil' helper
Joined: 28 Dec 2004
Posts: 148
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 1:13 pm Post subject: |
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| I salute your bravery |
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BonezTheGoon
Bodhisattva
Joined: 14 Jun 2002
Posts: 1375
Location: Albuquerque, NM -- birthplace of Microsoft and Gentoo
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:15 pm Post subject: |
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| wswartzendruber wrote: | | FUCK!!! Obama's gonna win this one. There's a 94% correlation between the Redskins winning their last home game before the election and the incumbent party keeping the White House. The Redskins are gonna play the Panthers, and there's no way the Redskins are going to lose. |
See this.
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| pjp wrote: | | The greater evil is voting for the "lesser evil." |
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Muso
l33t
Joined: 22 Oct 2002
Posts: 686
Location: The Holy city of Honolulu
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:28 pm Post subject: |
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| BonezTheGoon wrote: | | wswartzendruber wrote: | | FUCK!!! Obama's gonna win this one. There's a 94% correlation between the Redskins winning their last home game before the election and the incumbent party keeping the White House. The Redskins are gonna play the Panthers, and there's no way the Redskins are going to lose. |
See this. |
Another : REPUBLICANS HAVE WON EVERY NOVEMBER 6TH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SINCE 1860
| Quote: | 1860 - Abraham Lincoln over Stephen Douglas
1888 - Benjamin Harrison over incumbent Grover Cleveland
1900 - William McKinley over William Jennings Bryan
1928 - Herbert Hoover over Al Smith
1956 - Dwight Eisenhower over Adlai Stevenson
1984 - Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale |
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