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petrjanda
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 4:39 am    Post subject: How long before BitCoin comes crashing down Reply with quote

It went from $15 to $240 in 2 months. At what price do you think it will burst?
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Darth Marley
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What kind of other data is available?
Do we have a clue about what currencies are weakest in BC exchange rates?
I would suspect that some would treat BC as a hedge currency, since it will never inflate.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

it's shooting up partly because of increased demand, but also because democrats are massively inflating the US dollar right now in bailout #2. they're issuing 80 billion a month. last time they did this, it cut the value of the US dollar by nearly 70%. that's why international market products like gas and gold tripled in price.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 11:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

big dave wrote:
it's shooting up partly because of increased demand, but also because democrats are massively inflating the US dollar right now in bailout #2. they're issuing 80 billion a month. last time they did this, it cut the value of the US dollar by nearly 70%. that's why international market products like gas and gold tripled in price.

I'd hate to see what it's worth without that bailout: AU$1.00 = US$1.05
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sikpuppy wrote:
AU$1.00 = US$1.05
I wonder if that is the goal... bringing down the USD.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weak dollar is essential for the socialist agenda.
Strong dollar and higher interest rates are the cure.
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runningwithscissors
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In the long run, it is doomed.

It's a currency that encourages hoarding (or as its proponents would call it, "saving") since there is a finite number of them and there has been a gold rush of sorts for it.

The only people even keeping it in circulation are druggies and dealers of contraband. The rest are just waiting for when all the coins have been mined and they have the largest pile. Of course, that won't mean anything if no one is willing to accept them as payment.

Oh well, at least it's a mildly amusing experiment.
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pjp
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 11:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What kind of crash were you looking for?

Digital Currency Sees ‘BitCrash’ After All-Time High
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 11:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Has anyone here actually 'mined' for it? I mean just for fun. Is it reasonably possible that someone could obtain a single bitcoin with a dual core processor and a value gpu within a month of starting? Profitability not withstanding...
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petrjanda
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
What kind of crash were you looking for?

Digital Currency Sees ‘BitCrash’ After All-Time High


I think it's going for a double or even a triple top before it comes crashing down to about $30.

The problem is BitCoin is too volatile to be used as a currency due to the high speculative interest right now. It can't be used a store of value either because it has no inherent value(other than the energy used to mine them) and because the exchanges are susceptible to internet attacks.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think it is kind of a chicken and egg issue. One reason it is volatile is due to its lack of use. If it had more of a use, I think its volatility would narrow. But being volatile, it is difficult to use.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

runningwithscissors wrote:
In the long run, it is doomed.

It's a currency that encourages hoarding (or as its proponents would call it, "saving") since there is a finite number of them and there has been a gold rush of sorts for it.

Agreed. Here is an article which explains it well: https://medium.com/money-banking/2b5ef79482cb
Quote:
If millions of people started using bitcoins on a regular basis, the soaring value of bitcoins would actually be disastrous. You’ve heard of hyperinflation: this would be hyperdeflation. Take a gold bar valued at $600,000. At $60 per bitcoin, the value of that bar is 10,000 BTC. But then assume that bitcoins rise in value to $600 apiece, and then to $6,000, and then to $60,000 — as would have to happen if the fixed number of bitcoins was being used to store hundreds of billions of dollars in value. Then the value of the gold bar would plunge, in bitcoin terms — to 1,000 BTC and then 100 BTC and finally just 10 BTC. The same thing would happen to all other goods and services in the world, including your own salary. Everything would be constantly going down in price, if you thought in bitcoin terms.

Inflation is bad, but deflation is worse. The reason is that in a deflationary environment, no one spends money — because whatever you want to buy is sure to become cheaper in a few days or weeks. People hoard their cash, and spend it only begrudgingly, on absolute necessities. And they certainly don’t spend it on hiring people — no matter how productive their employees might be, they’d still be better off just holding on to that money and not paying anybody anything.

The result is an economy which would simply grind to a halt, with massive unemployment and almost no economic activity. In a word, it would be a Depression. In order to have economic growth, you need monetary growth as well — and that’s something which is impossible to achieve in a bitcoin-based system. Currencies such as the dollar, with a central bank which can print money at will, have succeeded for a reason. As economies grow, the money supply has to be able to grow with them. And that’s why bitcoin can never really succeed over the long term.

I know it is popular these days to just ignore history, but there is a reason we have fiat currency managed to ensure some level of inflation.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk, your cited author is a fucking idiot. i judge you negatively for citing such a poor analysis.

he appreciates that gold is a similar analog to bitcoin in that it is not fiat currency which can be inflated at will by a government, but ignores the fact that gold is not horded, and it is in fact traded at volume in many forms every single day, astronomically more than bitcoins. gold does not suffer from hyperdeflation. additionally, the US dollar was on the gold standard with only small adjustments until 1971... long after the great depression.

spend a week in forex trading and you'll understand better why this guy is an idiot.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If everything goes down in price, and salaries go down in price, because there is certain fixed amount of "coins" in the system that are being hoarded, it doesn't really matter.

If your paycheck says 1000bC and you can buy 1000 bread loafs at 1bC each, and it goes down to 100bC which gives you 1000 bread loafs at 0.1 bC, you still got 1000 bread loafs.

People will hoarde anything, not because it is good for them (or the economy) but because the stupid monkey in your genes thinks he's hoarding bananas.

The alternative suggested by richk's favourite author is that strongest guy in a village can go around with a pen and stack of post-it notes in his pocket, and ask what the bread loaf costs, and then promptly write that amount on a post-it note and give it to the baker. The baker has to accept it or risk getting beaten up (in modern terms, risk getting a democracy and other nice stuff Gaddafi got).

Interestingly, the exact moments in history Saddam and Gaddafi were attacked and disposed of correlates within weeks/months to their decisions to trade their countries oil for Euro and to-be Pan-Arabian-Dinar, respectively. Why exact that time, over a span of 2-3 decades? Weapons of mass destruction and popular revolts instigated and orchestrated via Twitter? Gimme a break.
How come americans don't make popular revolts? There are bazillion tweets every day about how the government and banksters are screwing them over, yet they are not storming Washington DC...

Brainwashed sheeple, stuck in banksters paradigm.

P.S.
Here is food for thought. Why do you think one of the first agendas of BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South-Africa) is to arm themselves AND start their own banking and exchange system? Why those two? Why was the baker forced to accept post-it notes?
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petrjanda
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Admit it, which one of you lost money in BitCoins in the recent bubble poppings? :lol:
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

petrjanda wrote:
Admit it, which one of you lost money in BitCoins in the recent bubble poppings? :lol:

I didn't but I support every attempt at breaking FED/IMF/Euro hegemony. :)
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 9:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Prenj wrote:
petrjanda wrote:
Admit it, which one of you lost money in BitCoins in the recent bubble poppings? :lol:

I didn't but I support every attempt at breaking FED/IMF/Euro hegemony. :)


I do too, but admittedly BC is so far a fucking disaster as a currency. I like the fact it is anonymous and that it has limited supply though.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the thing about mining the bitcoins is that it takes so much processing, and so much electricity that you spend more than its worth trying to get it.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

djdunn wrote:
the thing about mining the bitcoins is that it takes so much processing, and so much electricity that you spend more than its worth trying to get it.

that was easily the case when it was a couple bucks... not necessarily the case when they hit $200. most people were using their employer's networks anyways.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big dave wrote:
richk, your cited author is a fucking idiot. i judge you negatively for citing such a poor analysis.

he appreciates that gold is a similar analog to bitcoin in that it is not fiat currency which can be inflated at will by a government, but ignores the fact that gold is not horded, and it is in fact traded at volume in many forms every single day, astronomically more than bitcoins. gold does not suffer from hyperdeflation. additionally, the US dollar was on the gold standard with only small adjustments until 1971... long after the great depression.

spend a week in forex trading and you'll understand better why this guy is an idiot.
Also the notion that deflation is just 'bad' is nonsense.

These are the people who think under a period of deflation you won't buy a cup of coffee today because 2 months later it might cost half as much.

Look at electronics as well, computers get cheaper and faster every 6 months, but you don't see people postponing purchases indefinitely because of this. Time preference is important.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big dave wrote:
richk, your cited author is a fucking idiot. i judge you negatively for citing such a poor analysis.

he appreciates that gold is a similar analog to bitcoin in that it is not fiat currency which can be inflated at will by a government, but ignores the fact that gold is not horded, and it is in fact traded at volume in many forms every single day, astronomically more than bitcoins. gold does not suffer from hyperdeflation. additionally, the US dollar was on the gold standard with only small adjustments until 1971... long after the great depression.

spend a week in forex trading and you'll understand better why this guy is an idiot.
Someone seems to have invested quite a pile in this bitcoin stuff.

I think we've rehashed the silly "let's tie the value of everything in the world ever to this little pile of yellow stuff we dug up" discussion plenty of times however.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big dave wrote:
richk, your cited author is a fucking idiot. i judge you negatively for citing such a poor analysis.

Actually, I am not so sure about the analysis either. However, I think there is enough value in it to discuss, and I also think it gets the right answer in the end, even if not everything in it is 100% correct.

Quote:
he appreciates that gold is a similar analog to bitcoin in that it is not fiat currency which can be inflated at will by a government, but ignores the fact that gold is not horded, and it is in fact traded at volume in many forms every single day, astronomically more than bitcoins.

Gold is not hoarded? Isn't it's main use as a hedge against inflation? Sure, it is traded, but it isn't used as a day to day currency the way dollars are.

Quote:
gold does not suffer from hyperdeflation.

Why would it? The supply of gold is continually increasing from mining. Furthermore, as the price of gold increases, it becomes more economical to mine gold, increasing the supply and correcting the price. There is some hard limit to the amount of gold that can exist, but we are nowhere near it. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is designed to have a hard limit on the number of coins that will be reached fairly soon. It is therefore fundamentally different than any of our previous experience with gold.

Put another way, if we actually did mine every last drop of gold from the ground, the value of the existing gold would almost certainly skyrocket (basic supply and demand). If bitcoin was the common currency, why wouldn't this happen with it also?

Quote:
spend a week in forex trading and you'll understand better why this guy is an idiot.

What is forex trading?
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 6:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big dave wrote:
richk, your cited author is a fucking idiot. i judge you negatively for citing such a poor analysis.

he appreciates that gold is a similar analog to bitcoin in that it is not fiat currency which can be inflated at will by a government, but ignores the fact that gold is not horded, and it is in fact traded at volume in many forms every single day, astronomically more than bitcoins. gold does not suffer from hyperdeflation. additionally, the US dollar was on the gold standard with only small adjustments until 1971... long after the great depression.

spend a week in forex trading and you'll understand better why this guy is an idiot.


gold based currencies suffered from inflation, deflaltion and are a huge burden on the state.

So they have all the down sides of fiat currency.

Just with no upsides.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Prenj wrote:
If everything goes down in price, and salaries go down in price, because there is certain fixed amount of "coins" in the system that are being hoarded, it doesn't really matter.

If your paycheck says 1000bC and you can buy 1000 bread loafs at 1bC each, and it goes down to 100bC which gives you 1000 bread loafs at 0.1 bC, you still got 1000 bread loafs.

People will hoarde anything, not because it is good for them (or the economy) but because the stupid monkey in your genes thinks he's hoarding bananas.

That is a bit too simple of an analysis. The problem is that in a deflating economy, everyone knows that the longer they hold their money, the more it will be worth. So instead of buying a car today, they decide to hold off and buy a better car in a few months. If the economy is still deflating in a few months though, they may choose to again wait. They don't even need to invest it - they can just stick it under the mattress, and it will become more valuable.

Compare with an inflating economy, where there is no incentive to keep cash, because it will be worth less in the future than it is now. Instead, if you want to retain your value, you need to invest your money in something that will provide a rate of return greater than inflation. Encouraging people to invest their money has the powerful effect of increasing our standard of living over time. Thus the advantage to an inflationary economy.

Quote:
The alternative suggested by richk's favourite author is that strongest guy in a village can go around with a pen and stack of post-it notes in his pocket, and ask what the bread loaf costs, and then promptly write that amount on a post-it note and give it to the baker. The baker has to accept it or risk getting beaten up (in modern terms, risk getting a democracy and other nice stuff Gaddafi got).

Interestingly, the exact moments in history Saddam and Gaddafi were attacked and disposed of correlates within weeks/months to their decisions to trade their countries oil for Euro and to-be Pan-Arabian-Dinar, respectively. Why exact that time, over a span of 2-3 decades? Weapons of mass destruction and popular revolts instigated and orchestrated via Twitter? Gimme a break.
How come americans don't make popular revolts? There are bazillion tweets every day about how the government and banksters are screwing them over, yet they are not storming Washington DC...

Brainwashed sheeple, stuck in banksters paradigm.

I honestly have no idea what this portion is about. Can you explain it in a different way?
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 3:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

djdunn wrote:
the thing about mining the bitcoins is that it takes so much processing, and so much electricity that you spend more than its worth trying to get it.


So what kind of processing power would I expect to need if my goal were to obtain 1 single bit coin in a month. Are we talking high end gaming machine? 5 year old discount model? Server with multiple CPU?
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