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20-yr Hiatus in Rising Temps Has Climate Scientists Puzzled
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Bones McCracker
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 2:55 am    Post subject: 20-yr Hiatus in Rising Temps Has Climate Scientists Puzzled Reply with quote

Quote:
Twenty-year hiatus in rising temperatures has climate scientists puzzled

DEBATE about the reality of a two-decade pause in global warming and what it means has made its way from the sceptical fringe to the mainstream.

In a lengthy article this week, The Economist magazine said if climate scientists were credit-rating agencies, then climate sensitivity - the way climate reacts to changes in carbon-dioxide levels - would be on negative watch but not yet downgraded.

Another paper published by leading climate scientist James Hansen, the head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, says the lower than expected temperature rise between 2000 and the present could be explained by increased emissions from burning coal.

For Hansen the pause is a fact, but it's good news that probably won't last.

International Panel on Climate Change chairman Rajendra Pachauri recently told The Weekend Australian the hiatus would have to last 30 to 40 years "at least" to break the long-term warming trend.

But the fact that global surface temperatures have not followed the expected global warming pattern is now widely accepted.

Research by Ed Hawkins of University of Reading shows surface temperatures since 2005 are already at the low end of the range projections derived from 20 climate models and if they remain flat, they will fall outside the models' range within a few years.

"The global temperature standstill shows that climate models are diverging from observations," says David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

"If we have not passed it already, we are on the threshold of global observations becoming incompatible with the consensus theory of climate change," he says.

Whitehouse argues that whatever has happened to make temperatures remain constant requires an explanation because the pause in temperature rise has occurred despite a sharp increase in global carbon emissions.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/twenty-year-hiatus-in-rising-temperatures-has-climate-scientists-puzzled/story-e6frg6z6-1226609140980

Cue the Moonbats.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 2:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So what does this mean for us mere mortals, O wise one? :P
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I meant to post that and forgot about it... glad someone else saw it.

What I like is that regardless of what is thrown at them, they're unyielding in their ignorance. "We don't have a clue, but we're certain in our faith!" I recall reading of similar certainties back during the Great Cooldown of the 70s. I guess if they admitted not having a clue, it'd be far less newsworthy, able to generate funding, and likely not be exploitable for sanctioned progressive corporatism.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ZOMG! End of teh world!! ZOMG!!
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
ZOMG! End of teh world!! ZOMG!!

There is going to be at least a localised patch of warmth in NK if Un Fat Controller doesn't pull his head in soon. Perhaps he thinks a mushroom cloud can feed his starving subjects.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sikpuppy wrote:
notageek wrote:
ZOMG! End of teh world!! ZOMG!!

There is going to be at least a localised patch of warmth in NK if Un Fat Controller doesn't pull his head in soon. Perhaps he thinks a mushroom cloud can feed his starving subjects.

* Falls out of chair. *

AHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 4:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What? There is no pause. There was a temperature spike on one year 20 years ago. That's not the same thing as there not being a continued climate warming. One data point does a statistic not make.

I'd also urge caution against trusting publications coming from Australia, their economy is virtually completely invested in fossil industry, which buys *a lot* of misinformation.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 4:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a bit like Jaws - you know, when the water goes still.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 5:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

aidanjt wrote:
What? There is no pause. There was a temperature spike on one year 20 years ago. That's not the same thing as there not being a continued climate warming. One data point does a statistic not make.

I'd also urge caution against trusting publications coming from Australia, their economy is virtually completely invested in fossil industry, which buys *a lot* of misinformation.

Read the article.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 11:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Research by Ed Hawkins of University of Reading shows surface temperatures since 2005 are ... at the low end of the range projections derived from 20 climate models


So: what he actually said is that the expected temperature range described by the models in question turned out to be correct.

Quote:
"The global temperature standstill shows that climate models are diverging from observations," says David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation.


Liar or just stupid? Take your pick.

This is the big picture.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
regardless of what is thrown at them, they're unyielding in their ignorance. "We don't have a clue, but we're certain in our faith!"


Someone doesn't have a clue.

Short term trends are meaningless in terms of climate. Global warming is a statistical long-term average of weather observations (and others). Getting excited about this alleged halt in warming is as stupid as getting excited about a drop in temperatures as summer fades into winter.

Scientists like to be able to explain these short-term variations but what's at stake is not the fact of global warming but their ability to describe real-time energy flows through earth systems in fine detail. A failure to fully understand the processes which create a decadal trend does not affect the ability to discover (or predict) a long-term climate signal amongst all the noise of short-term variability.

Not that we don't know where all the heat went anyway. You remember all that wet, salty stuff you're dad was so eager to show you as a kid? The truth is that warming has not paused: it is accelerating.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The rights answer to this: HURRAY! BURN MORE OIL!
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

juniper wrote:
The rights answer to this: HURRAY! BURN MORE OIL!


What do you have against industrialized society? As much as "oil burning" has been attacked, it is nearly the sole reason that we are where we are in technology, agriculture, science, health care, etc, etc, etc. Cut it off, and we get reduced back to the bronze age quickly.

What about green energy? Fine, but let it mature on the back of our currently technology before you cut it's dick off, please?
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 2:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fossil fuels do all the "dick-cutting". They only make us rich in the short-term. In the long-term they will transform the climate, flood many coastal cities, wreak havoc on the food supply (famines in this century alone could kill hundreds of millions of people), destroy the economy, and maybe exterminate half of the earth's species - with the oceans being particularly badly hit.

Seriously: how stupid to you have to be to argue for a system that makes us rich now but fucks us up later?
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bigun wrote:
What do you have against industrialized society? As much as "oil burning" has been attacked, it is nearly the sole reason that we are where we are in technology, agriculture, science, health care, etc, etc, etc. Cut it off, and we get reduced back to the bronze age quickly.

What about green energy? Fine, but let it mature on the back of our currently technology before you cut it's dick off, please?

We had a perfectly viable alternative as far back as the 1940's. It was big oil and military interests which shut that down. New technology, exact same stonewalling by industry incumbents.
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you experience political reality dilation when travelling at american political speeds. it's in einstein's formulas. it's not their fault.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 4:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcgruff wrote:
Seriously: how stupid to you have to be to argue for a system that makes us rich now but fucks us up later?

How about a Democrat talking economics?

Is that stupid enough?
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McGruff
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How about Romney & Ryan - remember them?

Not that this has anything to do with climate...
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcgruff wrote:
In the long-term they will transform the climate, flood many coastal cities, wreak havoc on the food supply (famines in this century alone could kill hundreds of millions of people), destroy the economy, and maybe exterminate half of the earth's species - with the oceans being particularly badly hit.


For some reason I've got 'Rejoice in the sun' (Joan Baez) playing in my head now.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not like it matters, people believe what they want to believe. It's a dodo-trait that we have, for better or worse.

In other news, a 19-year old kid is working on a solution to clean oceans of plastic particles:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROW9F-c0kIQ&feature=youtu.be
http://inhabitat.com/19-year-old-student-develops-ocean-cleanup-array-that-could-remove-7250000-tons-of-plastic-from-the-worlds-oceans/
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McGruff
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 5:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

John-Boy wrote:
For some reason I've got 'Rejoice in the sun' (Joan Baez) playing in my head now.


Go and play it on the Jersey shore and see what the locals think about that.
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Bones McCracker
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 5:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Finally, mcgruff posts. :lol:
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meanwhile, a tree falls in the forest.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 5:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bigun wrote:
juniper wrote:
The rights answer to this: HURRAY! BURN MORE OIL!


What do you have against industrialized society? As much as "oil burning" has been attacked, it is nearly the sole reason that we are where we are in technology, agriculture, science, health care, etc, etc, etc. Cut it off, and we get reduced back to the bronze age quickly.

What about green energy? Fine, but let it mature on the back of our currently technology before you cut it's dick off, please?


Where we are is a mess, not la-la land, regardless of what the latest iPhone/Android ads would have you believe. Sure, you got a multi-core computer with 4g in your pocket, but someone died mining the stuff for it in Kongo. Sure, I know, when has life ever been fair, but at the same time, when you look at the big picture whos to say we got our shit right?

Lets see here, planet earth is 4.6 billion years old.
Scale it down to 46 years.
We, anatomically modern humans, have been on the planet as we are for 4 hours.
Our industrial revolution started 1 minute ago.
In that minute, we cut down 50% of forests, polluted ocean with plastics, fished out bunch of fish, exterminated species, nuked each other twice, almost nuked everything else on couple of occasions, we kill each other for resources and energy while getting free energy from the star our planet orbits, and fail to take advantage of free energy in form of wind and water that we are surrounded with.
Id say there is plenty to hold against industrialized society. The benefit? Not walking. Or at least some would have you think its a benefit.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Although we're very hung up on technology, the main real differences between us and Neanderthals is that we breed uncontrollably like rabbits, that half of us get fat by waging wars on and exploiting the other half, and that we wreak destruction upon our own biosphere. mcgruff calls this "being social".
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Last edited by Bones McCracker on Thu Apr 04, 2013 6:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 6:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BoneKracker wrote:
Finally, mcgruff posts. :lol:


You've been missing your regular ass-whuppin's haven't you? You just had to try it one more time...
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