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Bones McCracker
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 12:22 pm    Post subject: FT: Britain Slides Back Toward Recession Reply with quote

Quote:
Britain’s economy shrank 0.3 per cent in the final quarter of last year, bringing it closer to a possible “triple-dip” recession and piling pressure on the coalition government.

Chancellor George Osborne, whose austerity programme has come under increasing criticism as the economy has faltered, said he would “confront” the UK’s problems and not “run away” in response to the data, which was worse than economists had predicted.

“We have a reminder today that Britain faces a very difficult economic situation,” he said. “A reminder that last year was particularly difficult, that we face problems at home because of the debts built up over many years and problems abroad with the eurozone, where we export most of our products, in recession.”

The economy, which has essentially stagnated for 2½ years, pulled out of a shallow double-dip recession in the third quarter of 2012, but contracted again between the third and the fourth quarter by more than the expected 0.1 per cent. The economy was the same size in the fourth quarter as it was a year earlier.

“It remains too early to tell if the economy will triple-dip [which would require the economy to shrink again in the first quarter of this year], but today’s numbers have greatly increased the risk of a new recession and a downgrading of the UK’s triple A credit rating,” said Chris Williamson, an economist at Markit, a data company. “As such, the data pile ever more pressure on the chancellor to seek ways to revive the economy in the March Budget.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0795284-66d0-11e2-a805-00144feab49a.html#axzz2IzMXG23u

Meanwhile in the U.S., this morning the Ministry of Truth and the liberal ... er... the White House and the mainstream media started a propaganda blitz to pump up consumer confidence, trumpeting the return of economic happy days (NBC literally used that phrase this morning), based on the White House's latest claim regarding unemployment (that unemployment has now fallen to a five-year low).

You guys in Europe must be screwing something up. You should have listened to Obama when he came over there and told you you were doing it wrong. He's got this economy thing figured out. Now if we could only do something about the trillion dollars a year he keeps having to borrow...

I got a Chinese New Year e-card from somebody yesterday that said "Might as well get in the spirit of things." :lol:
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 12:49 pm    Post subject: Re: FT: Britain Slides Back Toward Recession Reply with quote

BoneKracker wrote:

You guys in Europe must be screwing something up. You should have listened to Obama when he came over there and told you you were doing it wrong. He's got this economy thing figured out.


Well to be honest here locally we are seeing signs that things are improving, local industry posted small profits (exports improved a lot) most of those that lost the job are now working "in black" (without a contract), it is possible that a good economic period is just beginning, if the internal market also improves it is going to be good.

BoneKracker wrote:
Now if we could only do something about the trillion dollars a year he keeps having to borrow...

I got a Chinese New Year e-card from somebody yesterday that said "Might as well get in the spirit of things." :lol:


The Japaneese are going to fix that, the magic word? "unlimited quantitative easing", also called "currency war" in the west ... An answer from western economies is expected soon :-)
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The US needs to pay careful attention to the mismanagement of the UK. This is what happens when you let the right loose on an ailing economy. Savage cuts are simply deepening the problems; an economy needs money in order to grow.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcgruff wrote:
The US needs to pay careful attention to the mismanagement of the UK. This is what happens when you let the right loose on an ailing economy. Savage cuts are simply deepening the problems; an economy needs money in order to grow.


More a case of Labour doing what they normally do - make free with the nation's finance.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 5:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcgruff wrote:
an economy needs money in order to grow.


Indeed. So you should be advocating the elimination of taxation.

Unfortunately you live in an Orwellian Distortion Bubble where you believe that taking money out of the economy via taxation and then sending a smaller portion of it back into the economy to take a bit more in taxation out of it is "smart". :lol:
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 5:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

@John-boy

You should Google "financial crisis". The UK was lucky to have Gordon Brown in charge. The Tories didn't have a clue what to do and would have created a real disaster.

Economies can't grow if you choke off demand. Simples. The idea that the private sector would be unleashed and create growth was laughable and our current predicament entirely predictable. If you're going to pay off debts, first you need to earn some money to pay the debts.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 5:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcgruff wrote:
You should Google "financial crisis". The UK was lucky to have Gordon Brown in charge.

Yeah, so lucky to have a fiscally incompetent oaf who not only sold all the nation's gold reserves at an all time low, but announced the date and quantity of sale in advance!
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 6:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcgruff wrote:
The UK was lucky to have Gordon Brown in charge.


JB sticks finger in ear and wiggles it about a bit. Must be hearing things,
could have sworn you said that we were lucky to have Gordon Brown at the helm.

A note was left for the new government from Labour you know, 'there's no money
left' - caused a stir at the time.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

aidanjt wrote:
mcgruff wrote:
You should Google "financial crisis". The UK was lucky to have Gordon Brown in charge.

Yeah, so lucky to have a fiscally incompetent oaf who not only sold all the nation's gold reserves at an all time low, but announced the date and quantity of sale in advance!


Swedish Riksbanken (national bank) sold loads of its gold listening to the advice from the same source at something like $450/ounce back in 2004. Then they said it was a Good Deal (tm). Lemmings believed it. Price went up to 1600+

:lol:
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

aidanjt wrote:
Yeah, so lucky to have a fiscally incompetent oaf who not only sold all the nation's gold reserves at an all time low, but announced the date and quantity of sale in advance!

Would've been awesome if he announced the sale and then actually bought gold. :lol:
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 6:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The logic behind Brown being good for economy can be easily explained by following short clip:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQZpb7GZEBs
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 7:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

aidanjt wrote:
Yeah, so lucky to have a fiscally incompetent oaf who not only sold all the nation's gold reserves at an all time low, but announced the date and quantity of sale in advance!


It looked like a good idea at the time:

Quote:
So why did Gordon Brown as chancellor dispose of all that gold? Well, my recollection of conversations with him and his advisers at the time is that they hated what they perceived as the intrinsic laziness of gold. It simply sat in the vaults gleaming but earning no interest.

They wanted assets that appeared to earn their keep, by generating interest payments.

They also hoped and believed that rampant global inflation was a thing of the past, and that the days of gold’s soaraway success would never recur.

To be fair to them, they weren’t alone in reducing their gold holdings. The Swiss, the Belgians and the Dutch also sold very significant amounts.

Also, the gold loss is spilt milk – and, as any great investor will tell you, it’s fatuous to weep over it.

But the stewards of our wealth would surely try to learn from their mistakes. And, in this case, Gordon Brown’s error was probably to place too low a premium on gold’s bothersome habit of retaining its intrinsic value over the very long term.


Does the loss of a few billion £ from the gold sale have anything to do with the triple dip?
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcgruff wrote:


Does the loss of a few billion £ from the gold sale have anything to do with the triple dip?


http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/basel-iii-brings-gold-back-7809

Quote:
Basel III’s increase of gold to full market value doubles the value of gold reserves held by banks (central and commercial).


Basically according to the new rules the pound is disadvantaged by the fact the UK central bank has no more gold. (read the full article)
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcgruff wrote:
..


Still naive - he threw the dice and banked on growth - hence the usual Labour
policy of spend 'till Daisy comes home.

Didn't turn up. Plus the current administration's policy has been endorsed by the
bank of England + IMF.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

John-Boy wrote:
Plus the current administration's policy has been endorsed by the
bank of England + IMF.


Well, of course. And Napoleon won at Waterloo. :wink:
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

John-Boy wrote:

Didn't turn up. Plus the current administration's policy has been endorsed by the
bank of England + IMF.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21175407

Quote:
24 January 2013 Last updated at 11:29 GMT

...............

The IMF chief economist has told the BBC that Chancellor George Osborne should consider slowing down austerity measures in his March budget.

..............

In October, Mr Blanchard claimed in an IMF report that austerity had hurt wealthy countries such as the UK far more than most analysts had expected.

...............

But Ed Balls, Labour's shadow chancellor, told the BBC: "David Cameron and George Osborne must finally heed the IMF's advice.

"They have repeatedly warned that a change of course would be needed in Britain if the economy turns out worse than expected. After two-and-a-half years of flatlining and a double-dip recession the IMF is now clearly losing patience.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

John-Boy wrote:
Still naive - he threw the dice and banked on growth - hence the usual Labour
policy of spend 'till Daisy comes home.


Labour had an entirely manageable level of spending - and were doing a lot of good with it - but they got caught out by the financial crisis, just like everyone else did. No-one saw that coming: it was a global problem not a Labour one.

Gordon Brown did take the lead in fixing it though and was widely praised for his vital, fast & decisive action. The Tories and the right in general had it dead wrong and would have created a disaster.

But that's for another thread I guess.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 1:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What's that, the fairy tale industrial sector British mums tell her broods, to put their little minds at ease after a day of panhandling in the Prole Section while she was off servicing Outer Party members for ration coupons?

(This is most certainly not in reference to anyone's mum in particular, of course.)
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Last edited by Bones McCracker on Sat Jan 26, 2013 3:41 am; edited 2 times in total
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 1:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't feel like figuring out if that was a response in kind... didn't seem applicable to mcgruff's, and I don't care enough to look at other posts.

EDIT: unlocked to allow for retraction.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 6:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcgruff wrote:
John-Boy wrote:
Still naive - he threw the dice and banked on growth - hence the usual Labour
policy of spend 'till Daisy comes home.


Labour had an entirely manageable level of spending - and were doing a lot of good with it - but they got caught out by the financial crisis, just like everyone else did. No-one saw that coming: it was a global problem not a Labour one.

Gordon Brown did take the lead in fixing it though and was widely praised for his vital, fast & decisive action. The Tories and the right in general had it dead wrong and would have created a disaster.

But that's for another thread I guess.



Labour had no 'credible economic policy', Darling admits


Quote:
Labour went into the 2010 general election without a credible economic policy

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 6:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
....


Two thoughts on that - one the world economy is in the karsey and two
we're dealing with the midden heap left by Labour - variables are going to change
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 6:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

John-Boy wrote:
we're dealing with the midden heap left by Labour


Here we go again.

Average net borrowing p.a., in millions:

Labour ............. 2003-2007 -- 37,000
Conservative ... 1992-1996 -- 41,000

And no I didn't cherry-pick. Those were the figures for the Conservative government immediately prior to Blair's first term in office - one of the worst periods for borrowing not just for the Conservatives but for the whole of the last 40 years (which Gordon Brown almost immediately turned into a surplus) - compared with Labour's worst period immediately prior to the crash.

If we were to look at the best performing years since 1979, adding up all the surpluses while in office, Labour wins again but by a whopping margin of 27,000m to only 8,000m despite only having been in office for 12 years out of the 32.

Post-crash, if we were to compare borrowing in the first two years of the coalition government with the last two years of Labour.... OK you get the picture. It's not good news for your Labour midden theory I'm afraid.

What have you been smoking?
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcgruff wrote:
What have you been smoking?



Quote:
Labour had no 'credible economic policy', Darling admits

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

:lol:
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

John-Boy wrote:
Labour had no 'credible economic policy', Darling admits


Bad leadership lost the election. They did fine up until then. Brown was a good chancellor in a lot of ways but definitely a bad leader.
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