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marens
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:11 am    Post subject: Germany forecasts zero deficit this year despite crisis Reply with quote

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Berlin (dpa) - The German Finance Ministry is forecasting a zero deficit for 2012 as the year winds down, thanks to vigorous tax revenues, a government paper obtained by dpa showed Sunday.

The data suggests that total income at all levels of government will cover expenses for the first time since 2007, despite the crisis afflicting other parts of the eurozone.

Just months ago, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble had forecast net public borrowing of 0.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), allowing Germany to meet the criteria of the Maastricht growth and stability pact.

The paper said net federal borrowing of 25 billion euros (32 billion dollars) would be 7 billion euros less than earlier forecast. That is balanced out by big surpluses in other parts of the system, especially at semi-autonomous social-welfare insurers.

Taxes continued to gush into government coffers this year as German exports held up and unemployment remained under control.

Germany has become an advocate of balanced budgets, scolding other eurozone nations to end their addiction to debt. However, even it had not expected to achieve an overall balance so quickly. The numbers include the accounts of local and state authorities outside federal control.

The Finance Ministry forecast was first reported by the weekly magazine Der Spiegel earlier Sunday.

Overall public debt will stand at 81.5 per cent of GDP at the end of the year, 2 percentage points better than previously predicted, but still far from the 60 per cent that has been set as the target, the forecast said. dpa sl jbp ncs Author: Andre Stahl


And still all the germans do is complain how bad the state of $everything is
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

well.. for example.... real income has gone done the last 20years. And without the very high rises of the members of IG Metall, it looks even worse.
or the sad state of almost all streets.
or the highly visible corruption and brown nosing.
...
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

At least you guys over there bothered to straighten the furniture in your house (economy). Over here in the United States we...hehehehe...we're actually...AHAHAHAHAHAHAH
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 4:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

energyman76b wrote:
well.. for example.... real income has gone done the last 20years. And without the very high rises of the members of IG Metall, it looks even worse.
or the sad state of almost all streets.
or the highly visible corruption and brown nosing.
...

Maybe it's time to try expanding the borders.

Again.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Did you just try to Godwin this thread?
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No.

He didn't mentioned Lebensraum.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Approximately one year before the elections deficit suddenly and miraculously is non-existent in spite of the crisis in the rest of the eurozone? I'm a bit suspicious of that.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Clad in Sky wrote:
Approximately one year before the elections deficit suddenly and miraculously is non-existent in spite of the crisis in the rest of the eurozone? I'm a bit suspicious of that.


probably the same fudging as with the 'Armutsreport'
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Basically Germany is using the KfW to hide the real debt.

This bank belongs to the German state and Laender but its debts do not appear as State debt, and are instead counted as private debt. Counting KfW debt (or at least public financing operations made by the KfW for the German State) as well the situation is not so good.
This trick has been known for years, and recently other EU countries started to use it as well. Well, it worked for the Germans and convinced everybody Germany has no public debt, it will work for others as well :-)

Counting the 'investments' (read loans) made by the KfW to the German public sector the real debt of Germany is 2.512 billions Euro.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
Basically Germany is using the KfW to hide the real debt.

This bank belongs to the German state and Laender but its debts do not appear as State debt, and are instead counted as private debt. Counting KfW debt (or at least public financing operations made by the KfW for the German State) as well the situation is not so good.
This trick has been known for years, and recently other EU countries started to use it as well. Well, it worked for the Germans and convinced everybody Germany has no public debt, it will work for others as well :-)


emm, everybody knows that we have a huge public debt (a big part thanks to saving all those banks who fell thanks to the USA).... so... what they did is hiding some of the NEW debt there...
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well the real problem is that according to the Maastricht treaty the ECB is the only central Bank of the EU and the only bank that can finance state debt. Since Germany is blatantly violating the treaty using the KfW to do public financing, Italy and France are resurrecting the BPI and the CDP two entities that served the same purpose of the KfW but were dismissed after the introduction of the euro as required by the treaty. Well we will be soon all hiding debt :-)
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
Well the real problem is that according to the Maastricht treaty the ECB is the only central Bank of the EU and the only bank that can finance state debt. Since Germany is blatantly violating the treaty using the KfW to do public financing, Italy and France are resurrecting the BPI and the CDP two entities that served the same purpose of the KfW but were dismissed after the introduction of the euro as required by the treaty. Well we will be soon all hiding debt :-)


before you continue with your dreams - please give some sources for your claims. Thank you.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wswartzendruber wrote:
At least you guys over there bothered to straighten the furniture in your house (economy). Over here in the United States we...hehehehe...we're actually...AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

Please, show me a politician that has ever voluntarily repaid any state dept.
It simply doesn't matter how much money the german economy generates, it will always be more attractive to spend money on whatever might get you votes.
If it works you get elected; profit. If it doesn't your successor will have to repay the dept; sucks to be them.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

energyman76b wrote:
erm67 wrote:
Well the real problem is that according to the Maastricht treaty the ECB is the only central Bank of the EU and the only bank that can finance state debt. Since Germany is blatantly violating the treaty using the KfW to do public financing, Italy and France are resurrecting the BPI and the CDP two entities that served the same purpose of the KfW but were dismissed after the introduction of the euro as required by the treaty. Well we will be soon all hiding debt :-)


before you continue with your dreams - please give some sources for your claims. Thank you.


Quote:
KfW banking group is a German government-owned development bank, based in Frankfurt. Its name originally comes from Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau, meaning Reconstruction Credit Institute. It was formed in 1948 after World War II as part of the Marshall Plan.
It is owned by the Federal Republic of Germany (80%) and the States of Germany (20%).[2] It is led by a five-member Managing Board headed by Ulrich Schröder, which in turn reports to a 37-member Supervisory Board.


The KfW is fully owned by the german government (central and regional), that is a fact.

The KfW is heavily financing the public sector in Germany, (Post, DB, Telekom), financing itself on the market, so the German government owner of the KfW is financing the public sector through a fully owned "private" bank. That is a fact.

It is left to you interpretation if the KfW debt should be counted as public debt or not :-)

Probably the fact that this is against the treaty is just bullshit of the Berlusconians to explain why Italy dismissed the CDP wrongly interpreting the treaty while Germany didn't :-) and btw no one is really contesting that ... as long as _Germany or the EU do not contest the resurrection of CDP and BPI of course.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hm, what are you trying to say?

really? if a town uses KfW to finance something it counts for their debt.

KfW itself had a plus of 500m in 2011. After 2000m in 2010. So what debts of the KfW are you talking about?
Please be more specific.

http://www.kfw.de/kfw/de/I/II/Download_Center/Finanzpublikationen/PDF_Dokumente_Berichte_etc./2_Jahresberichte/Jahresabschluss_2011.pdf

page 2 doesn't look bad.

edit: page 46 is where the really interesting stuff is 'hidden'.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wswartzendruber wrote:
At least you guys over there bothered to straighten the furniture in your house (economy). Over here in the United States we...hehehehe...we're actually...AHAHAHAHAHAHAH


marginal tax rate on 50,000 euro income is 42%. 8O
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

juniper wrote:
wswartzendruber wrote:
At least you guys over there bothered to straighten the furniture in your house (economy). Over here in the United States we...hehehehe...we're actually...AHAHAHAHAHAHAH


marginal tax rate on 50,000 euro income is 42%. 8O


and 250000 45%

which is much lower than in the 50s, when the economy was healthy: 53% at 53000....
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Libertardian denial of reality is wholly unimpressive and unconvincing, and simply serves to demonstrate what a bunch of delusional fools they all are.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

energyman76b wrote:
hm, what are you trying to say?

really? if a town uses KfW to finance something it counts for their debt.

KfW itself had a plus of 500m in 2011. After 2000m in 2010. So what debts of the KfW are you talking about?
Please be more specific.

Well, when a town finances itself makes a debt, so it does count as public debt. And that is out of question.
But the government cannot finance directly a industry (like Telekom DB or DP) without increasing the public debt, because the government can only finance itself issuing bonds or asking money to the ECB. Instead if a bank fully owned by the government does finance itself on the market (making debt since it cannot print money) and gives the money to an industry there is no increase in public debt since the KfW funds itself on the market and gives money to semi-private industries like those of the public sector.
And, well, the owners of the KfW have absolutely no political influence on their activities. :-)

energyman76b wrote:

http://www.kfw.de/kfw/de/I/II/Download_Center/Finanzpublikationen/PDF_Dokumente_Berichte_etc./2_Jahresberichte/Jahresabschluss_2011.pdf

page 2 doesn't look bad.

edit: page 46 is where the really interesting stuff is 'hidden'.

Gonna read that later ...
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

there is no difference between:
Bank X loans Telekom money
Bank KfW loans Telekom money
the second one is even good for the state - because the plus of the Kfw is good for theetat.

but EZB buys Telekom stock is different

besides - isn't Spain busy helping banks instead of... lets say forcing football 'clubs' to pay their taxes and debt back?
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Libertardian denial of reality is wholly unimpressive and unconvincing, and simply serves to demonstrate what a bunch of delusional fools they all are.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

page 47
begebene Schuldverschreibungen compare 2010 with 2011 ...... what happened?


The difference is that since bank X is privately owned private citizens are responsible for the debt so it is private debt (if not in Ireland), but since KfW is owned by the government the government is responsible for that debt, bonds issued by the KfW are effectively public debt. It is a great difference.
Govenment issues bond => public debt
Bank fully owned by the government issues bonds (finances itself) => public debt
It is good for the economy and probably a big mistake on our part to stop doing that and declare the full size of our debt, that is why we're probably doing it again. Not having hidden debt can be an advantage in the long term ...
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

energyman76b wrote:
juniper wrote:
wswartzendruber wrote:
At least you guys over there bothered to straighten the furniture in your house (economy). Over here in the United States we...hehehehe...we're actually...AHAHAHAHAHAHAH


marginal tax rate on 50,000 euro income is 42%. 8O


and 250000 45%

which is much lower than in the 50s, when the economy was healthy: 53% at 53000....


but, but, but I thought that "high" taxes destroy economies? but, but, but, I don't get it.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
page 47
begebene Schuldverschreibungen compare 2010 with 2011 ...... what happened?


The difference is that since bank X is privately owned private citizens are responsible for the debt so it is private debt (if not in Ireland), but since KfW is owned by the government the government is responsible for that debt, it is public debt. It is a great difference.
It is good for the economy and probably a big mistake on our part to stop doing that and declare the full size of our debt, that is why we're probably doing it again. Not having hidden debt can be an advantage in the long term ...


when a bank goes down, the state jumps in ( see HypoRealEstate or BayernLB). So what was your point again?
Since the KfW is 'just a bank' there is no 'hidden debt'. Its balance is open to see for everybody. And every community, town, city, Landkreis, Land, that uses KfW loans has to deal with them like with any other loan. So not hiding their too. So what was your point again?

Also this:
(2) Als begebene Schuldverschreibungen sind auf den Inhaber lautende Schuldverschreibungen sowie Orderschuldverschreibungen, die Teile einer Gesamtemission sind, unabhängig von ihrer Börsenfähigkeit auszuweisen. Zurückgekaufte, nicht börsenfähige eigene Schuldverschreibungen sind abzusetzen. Null-Kupon-Anleihen sind einschließlich der anteiligen Zinsen auszuweisen.

so they sold some bonds.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

energyman76b wrote:
So not hiding their too. So what was your point again?

That the german government do not issue directly bonds but instead let a fully owned bank issue them to finance the public sector. That is ok, the point is that bonds not issued directly by the government are not counted in the public debt figures, like they should.
The debt of a fully owned subsidiary counts as debt of the owning company usually...

energyman76b wrote:

Also this:
(2) Als begebene Schuldverschreibungen sind auf den Inhaber lautende Schuldverschreibungen sowie Orderschuldverschreibungen, die Teile einer Gesamtemission sind, unabhängig von ihrer Börsenfähigkeit auszuweisen. Zurückgekaufte, nicht börsenfähige eigene Schuldverschreibungen sind abzusetzen. Null-Kupon-Anleihen sind einschließlich der anteiligen Zinsen auszuweisen.

so they sold some bonds.


Bonds = debt
Used to finance the public sector on behalf of the government, that amount should be added to the public deficit to see the real balance of the German State.
Curious that they sold so many more compared to previous years don't you think? :-)

debt != losses

It is just the ratio public debt/gdp that is affected by this trick.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I shouldn't have used that word 'bond' because you really misunderstood it.. oh well...


every single bank has 'Verbriefte Verbindlichkeiten'. See this for example:
https://www.nordlb.de/fileadmin/redaktion/branchen/investorrelations/geschaeftsberichte/2011/Geschaeftsbericht_2011.pdf
(page 222 if you are in a hurry)

while other banks have the money of the customers (Kundeneinlagen), the KfW doesn't - so they have to get the money to lend around somewhere. It doesn't matter if you have a giro account or bought a 'bond' - the bank owns you money. Also the end there is ZERO difference if you get a loan from a private bank or the KfW from the debt point of view. So really, there is nothing hidden there. In fact lending by the KfW is a good thing (and don't forget the private sector like housing), because the interest is modest.

Think about this:
X has a loan from KfW of 1000M which raised the money from the market
or
X has a loan from a private Bank which raised the money from the market
or
X raised the money from the market

do you see a difference from the debt point of view? However you look at it, you own 'the market' the money, with the banks just acting as a middle man. So no hidden debt and nothing. You can go to sleep now. I know I will.
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Libertardian denial of reality is wholly unimpressive and unconvincing, and simply serves to demonstrate what a bunch of delusional fools they all are.

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