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Bones McCracker
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 4:19 am    Post subject: Fedex says economy is stalling, cuts outlook Reply with quote

Associated Press reports that logistics giant FedEx (who are watched as an indicator of economic and trade health) has warned investors that the economy is stalling again, led by revenue losses in the U.S.

The actual headline was in bold, red capitals in the original article, like this:
Quote:
FEDEX SAYS ECONOMY IS STALLING, CUTS OUTLOOK
Quote:
The conditions are shrinking earnings at the world's second-largest package delivery company. Factories are making fewer items for FedEx to ship and customers are opting for cheaper delivery options to save money.

FedEx on Tuesday cut its outlook for global growth and industrial production while slashing the forecast for company earnings. And CEO Fred Smith suggested trade has slowed to levels seen during the last two significant economic downturns.

It's more evidence that the global economy has a way to go to a full recovery. Several countries in Europe are in recession and the U.S. is struggling with high unemployment and weaker manufacturing growth. And Smith said some experts have underestimated the severity of the slowdown in exports from China, where FedEx has invested heavily over the last several years, adding new planes to export goods and expanding its hubs and network.

FedEx's forecasts are closely watched for signals of future economic health.

While the AP author is careful to use the word "Global" a half dozen times in the article, presumably wanting to avoid throwing cold water on Obama's re-election chances, the Actual Fedex investors' news release (pdf) shows that the largest revenue drop is actually in the U.S.
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energyman76b
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

why?

why is Fedex hit at all? I mean - UPS, sure they are everywhere and people actually use them outside of the USA. DHL? You bet! But Fedex?
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zenlunatic
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I imagine Amazon is what keeps UPS going. Fedex may just need some new contracts.

What I'm seriously interested in is the survivability of USPS. I asked a retired family postman, and he even said there is something to be worried about there. USPS first class mail is still one of the best true private communications.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

so what email client the are planning to use?
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Koala Kid wrote:
so what email client the are planning to use?


++ That was my first thought too. Microsoft software was being cut. Hah! :lol:
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BoneKracker wrote:
logistics giant FedEx
:lol: cough :roll:

Somehow I doubt that FedEx is an indicator for the state of the economy in the USA. In any case, I have no problem whatsoever with this news, if it actually reflects reality.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wildhorse wrote:
BoneKracker wrote:
logistics giant FedEx
:lol: cough :roll:

Somehow I doubt that FedEx is an indicator for the state of the economy in the USA. In any case, I have no problem whatsoever with this news, if it actually reflects reality.


Three major shipping companies are sure sign of how companies and individuals are moving anything physical between themselves, which translates into pretty good index of economy's health, unlike some other bullshit indexes out there, for example tied to the currency which is printed out of thin air.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Prenj wrote:
Three major shipping companies are sure sign of how companies and individuals are moving anything physical between themselves, which translates into pretty good index of economy's health, unlike some other bullshit indexes out there, for example tied to the currency which is printed out of thin air.


Yep. Makes sense too. If stuff ain't moving, stuff ain't selling.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 8:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

danomac wrote:
Prenj wrote:
Three major shipping companies are sure sign of how companies and individuals are moving anything physical between themselves, which translates into pretty good index of economy's health, unlike some other bullshit indexes out there, for example tied to the currency which is printed out of thin air.


Yep. Makes sense too. If stuff ain't moving, stuff ain't selling.


It also cuts out local sales, national freight, international sea freight and rail freight which would account for about 85% of sales. So no, it's a very poor index of an economy's health
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 8:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

USPS > UPS > FedEx
If all three shipping companies would see a significant change, then I would call that an indicator.
FedEx is currently going through a restructuring programme. That's what is happening.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 8:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DHL in H1 of 2012 grew by 5.8% compared to H1 2011

DHL Q2 of 2012 grew by 7.3% compared to Q2 of 2011

maybe it is not the economy - maybe FedEx is just losing market share to its competitors.
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bbe
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 9:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Baltic Dry Index is a useful indicator of global trade of raw materials.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

IATA Freight Rankings
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 12:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't voluntarily use UPS.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 12:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, personally, when I was brokering semiconductors, I'd use anything customer has contract with, usually fedex, UPS or DHL (for EU). 99% of customers had contract with either of 3, if they didn't, we'd ship by fedex and charge.

The main reason for chosing FedEx over UPS was the fact that UPS guy would come around warehouse in Montreal at around 1PM, where FedEx would show up at 4:30 PM, so the warehouse staff had time to plan accordingly. Also if you get a call around 9pm and you quote a price, customer would usually call other brokers and ask for better price. Which means that they sit down to write order after lunch, and you get it at around 2PM.

If they are negotiating hard, they would make several calls and try every trick in the book to shave off few percentages, which usually results in orders arriving at 4PM as "last chance" would be given by 3:30 PM.

Wonder how many deals does UPS lose that way, by couple of hours?
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I preferred the 4 o'clock pickup because it let me get as much as possible on the dock for that day.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
I preferred the 4 o'clock pickup because it let me get as much as possible on the dock for that day.


Yeah, it lets you do the sales 7:00 - 15:00 and warehouse staff can pack as orders come in, and you still ship the same day. In some cases "shipping tomorrow" is a deal-breaker when you have to do an "overnight" shipment.
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Bones McCracker
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bbe wrote:
The Baltic Dry Index is a useful indicator of global trade of raw materials.

Yeah, and look at it. It's plunging.

According to it, we've been fucked since July.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wildhorse wrote:
USPS > UPS > FedEx
If all three shipping companies would see a significant change, then I would call that an indicator.
FedEx is currently going through a restructuring programme. That's what is happening.

No, that would be a composite of indicators.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BoneKracker wrote:
No, that would be a composite of indicators.
Everybody else realised that your posting made no sense. Maybe you should see Oblabla's doctors.
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Bones McCracker
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 5:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wildhorse wrote:
BoneKracker wrote:
No, that would be a composite of indicators.
Everybody else realised that your posting made no sense. Maybe you should see Oblabla's doctors.

:roll:

But this link on that page is horrifyingly funny:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2205931/Make-free-Kathy-Griffin-unrecognisable-enjoys-hike-toyboy-beau-Randy.html
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Darth Marley
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 8:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That link should have a warning attached to it.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You know.... Really doesn't take Fedex to see this was apparent. I figure the failed mathematics of Governments was suffice.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BoneKracker wrote:
bbe wrote:
The Baltic Dry Index is a useful indicator of global trade of raw materials.

Yeah, and look at it. It's plunging.

According to it, we've been fucked since July.


Not just you (the US) I'm afraid. Personally I am worried about what a slow down in China will mean.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 11:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

paradox6996 wrote:
You know.... Really doesn't take Fedex to see this was apparent. I figure the failed mathematics of Governments was suffice.

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt, baby, and sometimes it takes a pile of evidence to overcome it.
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