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notageek
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 7:07 pm    Post subject: Andrew S. Tanenbaum and his electoral-vote.com Reply with quote

http://electoral-vote.com/

This is a website written and maintained by AST. I've followed previous elections on this website.

Enjoy!
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pjp
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 8:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not convinced Colorado will go to Obama, but that doesn't change much.

If nothing else, this election should indicate whether or not the state has shifted, or whether not they're willing to vote for their "best candidate."

1992 Clinton (because of Perot's ~23%)
1996 Dole (despite Perot's ~6.5%)
2000 Bush (by 8%, or 3% if you give Nader's to Gore)
2004 Bush (by 4%)
2008 Obama (by 9%)

So in any meaningful way, Obama was the first recent win for Democrats in Colorado. And that seems reasonable to be a knee-jerk.

Previously: Bush 41, Reagan x2, Ford, Nixon x2. You have to go back to Johnson for the last Democrat, and that seems likely to have been an anomaly.

EDIT:

Also noteworthy is that the site you reference shows Romney picking up 3 states: IN, IA & NC. I'd expect a few more to topple his way, but still not necessarily enough to make it close. He'll have to win FL.
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notageek
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This website had correctly predicted election outcomes in the past.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll be curious to see how it changes over time.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

But... why? A CS Professor from the Netherlands makes a US political site... bizarre.
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notageek
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 4:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

He's American. Works in Netherlands.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 6:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
He's American. Works in Netherlands.

President Clinton was into interns netherlands. Is it him under a pseudonym?
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 6:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
This website had correctly predicted election outcomes in the past.


hmmm

Intrade has the democrats controlling senate at 32.4%, compared to the republicans at 56.3%.

Is this worth a lazy $20, do you think?
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Carter vs. Reagan, supposedly as late as the end of October, had Carter winning by a large margin. As well, Carter supposedly had more money.

But let me be clear, as I've said all along, Romney is no Reagan.

And this site may be interested in accuracy more than mainstream media. Doesn't seem to have any update in data. The SCOTUS ruling surely had some impact.
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notageek
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Says most recent poll in any state is used. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/map-algorithm.html

Have there been polls after the ruling?

In 2004/2008, this page trailed by a week w.r.t the current events.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A week doesn't seem too bad. Polls happen (seemingly) ever day, so no idea on which polls they are relying.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The numbers have changed today.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
The numbers have changed today.


still a crushing loss to the Head Romney
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Darn, I didn't think to note what it was. But picking up FL is significant.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The numbers have changed.

Related news from AFP : here

Quote:
With economy stalled, Romney tied with Obama: poll
(AFP) – 38 minutes ago

WASHINGTON — Mitt Romney has drawn even with President Barack Obama in the White House race, with likely voters favoring the Republican challenger to fix the US economy, a poll showed Thursday.

The New York Times/CBS News poll showed little recent shift in attitudes toward Romney despite negative advertising by Obama's re-election campaign, which seeks to portray Romney as a wealthy elite who is out of touch with everyday Americans, and extensive criticism of his business record.

Although the results were within the margin of error, Thursday's poll marked the first time Romney showed a numerical edge, with 45 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him if the elections were held now, compared with 43 percent for Obama, The New York Times said.

The study comes during a period of slackening US job growth, with Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke seeing "frustratingly slow" drops in the unemployment rate, which has hovered above eight percent for over three years.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The website is poor at making it easy to tell what has changed. CO is fading from Obama. Looks like IA is now slightly toward Obama. Not long ago, it had Romney with 241, then 212, now 235.
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notageek
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 6:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's written by a computer science professor, who probably knows all the states of America by heart. So, he's able to tell, at-glance, what has changed. But never mind that, the numbers are reasonably accurate.

There used to be a graph of some sort, if I recall, which graphed ratings to events. I can't find it now.

BTW, he's a Democrat.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Knowing all of the states isn't difficult.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I prefer this view:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/EVP_average.html
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

realclearpolitics shows the electoral gap narrowing, Obama ahead by only 1% in popular vote, and Obama sliding into negative territory again in overall job approval. The impact of most recent events aren't reflected in polls yet (e.g., "you didn't build dat").
http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

My bottom line: it's so close it all depends on what happens between now and November.
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Last edited by Bones McCracker on Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:42 am; edited 1 time in total
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notageek
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You see 10 maps and they will all tell you different information.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BoneKracker wrote:
My bottom line: it's so close it all depends on what happens between now and November.
Some of the states voting for him in '08 have to suffer buyer's remorse. Any idea if RCP lists the success rate of their predictions for previous elections?


notageek wrote:
You see 10 maps and they will all tell you different information.
No longer champion for the guy in this thread? :P
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notageek
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 6:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No, you misunderstand.

What I'm saying is, you see 10 maps and they will all tell you different, instead, just focus on one. AST's electoral-vote. Because he's the grandfather of Linux.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 6:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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notageek
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bump.

Nothing seems to be happening.
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