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Muso
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
Bump.

Nothing seems to be happening.


The real poll numbers
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As I already mentioned, it's a bad map.

The last noticeable change was July 20th. If you click the "previous" button and try to view the map as a whole, you'll see fluctuation in strength of some states (I noticed mostly blue, which seems the biggest issue... how well are people going to remain in support of Obama).

The last time I looked at this version, the "hand" was at a higher number.

He really needs to show a trend map with the fluctuation. Maybe that'll be an improvement for the next time.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 3:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
Nothing seems to be happening.
IA went from likely Obama to barely Romney. That's a pretty quick change. Other changes I've noticed have been more gradual.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 7:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
Bump.

Nothing seems to be happening.


So, we're almost at the ides of of August, and the presidential election is the day after Guy Fawkes Day, less than 3 months away, and Ryan now has the VP nomination.

http://ompldr.org/vZjNmMA
http://ompldr.org/vZjNmMQ

I just want to record this.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 7:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No need to record. The "previous" button shows prior status.

I just wish the senate view was in tabular form like exists for EVs.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 2:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, indeed, the three main events in US presidential events are VP selection, convention and the debates.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 2:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Give the polls a few days to catch up with the Ryan nomination (which took place over a weekend), and I think one will see a bump for Mittens.

[edit] Too lazy to look up; does anyone know if the polls are questioning registered voters or likely voters?
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 2:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Registered voters. I just skimmed through the FAQ section.

These are the polls that are being used in the graph though:

Quote:
The Gallup Poll
Mason-Dixon
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
Rasmussen Reports
SurveyUSA
PPP

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 3:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If it is registered voters, then it is next to worthless. Things might be significantly different if the polls were based on likely voters.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 3:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
So, indeed, the three main events in US presidential events are VP selection, convention and the debates.
They are? Why are they the 3 main events?
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 3:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old School wrote:
If it is registered voters, then it is next to worthless. Things might be significantly different if the polls were based on likely voters.


there's a discussion about this further down. He does use likely voters, but it's difficult to determine who is actually a likely voter, and not all pollsters give data that separates likely and registered.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/polling-faq.html#likelyvoters
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 3:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sugar wrote:
Old School wrote:
If it is registered voters, then it is next to worthless. Things might be significantly different if the polls were based on likely voters.


there's a discussion about this further down. He does use likely voters, but it's difficult to determine who is actually a likely voter, and not all pollsters give data that separates likely and registered.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/polling-faq.html#likelyvoters


Thanks sugar.
Quote:
Well, they often try. Many polls include questions designed to determine if the person is likely to vote. These may include:
Are you currently registered to vote?
Did you vote in 2010?
Did you vote in 2008?
Do you believe that it is every citizen's duty to vote?
Do you think your vote matters?


I would think that would be about as good as possible for polling purposes.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 3:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Duty" makes it sound like one of those pledging allegiance deals.

Popular vote doesn't determine the outcome.

So... Yes, Yes, Yes, No, No.
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Last edited by pjp on Tue Aug 14, 2012 3:27 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 3:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Muso wrote:
notageek wrote:
Bump.

Nothing seems to be happening.


The real poll numbers


you have your math, but he has THE math.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 3:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, dailykos...
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 3:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
They are? Why are they the 3 main events?
I read it recently that the three main events, which influence voters, in an American election are the ones I mentioned. I don't recall who said it or where I read it.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 3:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
Well, dailykos...


dick morris is no better than the daily kos. You have to speak to chop in a language he can understand.

How about this?

Is Dick Morris the world's worst political pundit?

*Spoiler alert!* the answer is yes.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 3:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you want to demonstrate how bad Morris is, an equally if not more biased source is the best option? Seems unlikely. I'm not familiar enough with him to say how bad he is or isn't.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 3:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
If you want to demonstrate how bad Morris is, an equally if not more biased source is the best option? Seems unlikely. I'm not familiar enough with him to say how bad he is or isn't.


chop doesn't respond to reasonable sources. In any case, I don't need to post *anything* to show how terrible a pundit he is, because this is already well known.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 4:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sugar wrote:
Muso wrote:
notageek wrote:
Bump.

Nothing seems to be happening.


The real poll numbers


you have your math, but he has THE math.

Daily Kos? Seriously? :?

If you want a reasonable average of the various biases, go to RealClearPolitics.

Morris is right about one thing: it's been standard Democrat campaign practice the past few elections to grossly misrepresent poll results in an attempt to sway their lemming voters. This is why people were so tragically shocked and incredulous when Al Gore lost -- all the liberal media had been showing them numbers predicting that he would win by a substantial margin. They were even doing it right on election night until it became obvious.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 4:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BoneKracker wrote:
Morris is right about one thing: it's been standard Democrat campaign practice the past few elections to grossly misrepresent poll results in an attempt to sway their lemming voters. This is why people were so tragically shocked and incredulous when Al Gore lost -- all the liberal media had been showing them numbers predicting that he would win by a substantial margin. They were even doing it right on election night until it became obvious.


Quote:
After the 2010 elections, the New York Times statistics wizard, Nate Silver, analyzed the polls produced by various polling organizations, including Rasmussen Reports, which is the house pollster for Fox News. Silver's analysis covered only polls taken during the final three weeks of the campaign and compared them to the actual election results. For polls taken much earlier, say in June, no one knows what the true sentiment of the electorate was, so there is no way to tell if the polls were accurate or not. Also, any pollster deliberately falsifying the results for partisan advantage would be advised to reduce the bias as the election neared. After all, no one can tell if a June poll is accurate but everyone can tell if a poll released the day before the election is accurate.

Silver analyzed 105 polls released by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, for Senate and gubernatorial races in numerous states across the country. The bottom line is that on average, Rasmussen's polls were off by 5.8% with a bias of 3.9% in favor of the Republican candidates.


http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/rasmussen.html

In fact, a NY times looked at the pollsters that had a significant number of polls, over at least 2 states, and saw that there was a republican bias for all (but one) of them, with the rasmussen reports being the worst.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/06/when-house-effects-become-bias/

Quote:
The discrepancies between Rasmussen Reports polls and those issued by other companies were apparent from virtually the first day that Barack Obama took office. Rasmussen showed Barack Obama’s disapproval rating at 36 percent, for instance, just a week after his inauguration, at a point when no other pollster had that figure higher than 20 percent.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 4:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sugar wrote:
BoneKracker wrote:
Morris is right about one thing: it's been standard Democrat campaign practice the past few elections to grossly misrepresent poll results in an attempt to sway their lemming voters. This is why people were so tragically shocked and incredulous when Al Gore lost -- all the liberal media had been showing them numbers predicting that he would win by a substantial margin. They were even doing it right on election night until it became obvious.


Quote:
After the 2010 elections, the New York Times statistics wizard, Nate Silver, analyzed the polls produced by various polling organizations, including Rasmussen Reports, which is the house pollster for Fox News. Silver's analysis covered only polls taken during the final three weeks of the campaign and compared them to the actual election results. For polls taken much earlier, say in June, no one knows what the true sentiment of the electorate was, so there is no way to tell if the polls were accurate or not. Also, any pollster deliberately falsifying the results for partisan advantage would be advised to reduce the bias as the election neared. After all, no one can tell if a June poll is accurate but everyone can tell if a poll released the day before the election is accurate.

Silver analyzed 105 polls released by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, for Senate and gubernatorial races in numerous states across the country. The bottom line is that on average, Rasmussen's polls were off by 5.8% with a bias of 3.9% in favor of the Republican candidates.


http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/rasmussen.html

In fact, a NY times looked at the pollsters that had a significant number of polls, over at least 2 states, and saw that there was a republican bias for all (but one) of them, with the rasmussen reports being the worst.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/06/when-house-effects-become-bias/

Quote:
The discrepancies between Rasmussen Reports polls and those issued by other companies were apparent from virtually the first day that Barack Obama took office. Rasmussen showed Barack Obama’s disapproval rating at 36 percent, for instance, just a week after his inauguration, at a point when no other pollster had that figure higher than 20 percent.

You believe the New York Times on an issue like that? Yes, Rasmussen has a Republican bias. New York Times (also a pollster) has a Democrat bias. Several prominent, generally reliable polls have a definitive tendency one way or the other. That's why I look at an average of a well-selected group of them.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It changed! It changed!
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
It changed! It changed!
It changed again, though by a larger margin this time.

VA is tied (yeah, right) and OH is within 1%. And that assumes no other changes, which seems unlikely.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 3:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seems like the rtaint boost from Ryan has been lost already.
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