Andrew S. Tanenbaum and his electoral-vote.com

notageek

http://electoral-vote.com/

This is a website written and maintained by AST. I've followed previous elections on this website.

Enjoy!
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pjp · Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 8:06 pm Post subject:

I'm not convinced Colorado will go to Obama, but that doesn't change much.

If nothing else, this election should indicate whether or not the state has shifted, or whether not they're willing to vote for their "best candidate."

1992 Clinton (because of Perot's ~23%)
1996 Dole (despite Perot's ~6.5%)
2000 Bush (by 8%, or 3% if you give Nader's to Gore)
2004 Bush (by 4%)
2008 Obama (by 9%)

So in any meaningful way, Obama was the first recent win for Democrats in Colorado. And that seems reasonable to be a knee-jerk.

Previously: Bush 41, Reagan x2, Ford, Nixon x2. You have to go back to Johnson for the last Democrat, and that seems likely to have been an anomaly.

EDIT:

Also noteworthy is that the site you reference shows Romney picking up 3 states: IN, IA & NC. I'd expect a few more to topple his way, but still not necessarily enough to make it close. He'll have to win FL.
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notageek · Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:16 am Post subject:

This website had correctly predicted election outcomes in the past.
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pjp · Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:01 am Post subject:

I'll be curious to see how it changes over time.
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In Loving Memory
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zenlunatic · Guru Joined: 09 Apr 2003 Posts: 312

But... why? A CS Professor from the Netherlands makes a US political site... bizarre.

notageek · Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 4:24 am Post subject:

He's American. Works in Netherlands.
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sikpuppy · Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 6:03 am Post subject:

sugar · Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 6:11 am Post subject:

pjp · Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:55 pm Post subject:

Carter vs. Reagan, supposedly as late as the end of October, had Carter winning by a large margin. As well, Carter supposedly had more money.

But let me be clear, as I've said all along, Romney is no Reagan.

And this site may be interested in accuracy more than mainstream media. Doesn't seem to have any update in data. The SCOTUS ruling surely had some impact.
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In Loving Memory
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notageek · Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:57 pm Post subject:

Says most recent poll in any state is used. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/map-algorithm.html

Have there been polls after the ruling?

In 2004/2008, this page trailed by a week w.r.t the current events.
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pjp · Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:38 pm Post subject:

A week doesn't seem too bad. Polls happen (seemingly) ever day, so no idea on which polls they are relying.
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In Loving Memory
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notageek · Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 1:02 pm Post subject:

The numbers have changed today.
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sugar · Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:14 pm Post subject:

pjp · Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 9:08 pm Post subject:

Darn, I didn't think to note what it was. But picking up FL is significant.
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In Loving Memory
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notageek · Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:42 pm Post subject:

The numbers have changed.

Related news from AFP : here

pjp · Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 5:33 pm Post subject:

The website is poor at making it easy to tell what has changed. CO is fading from Obama. Looks like IA is now slightly toward Obama. Not long ago, it had Romney with 241, then 212, now 235.
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lolgov. 'cause where we're going, you don't have civil liberties.

In Loving Memory
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notageek · Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 6:10 pm Post subject:

It's written by a computer science professor, who probably knows all the states of America by heart. So, he's able to tell, at-glance, what has changed. But never mind that, the numbers are reasonably accurate.

There used to be a graph of some sort, if I recall, which graphed ratings to events. I can't find it now.

BTW, he's a Democrat.
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pjp · Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 7:09 pm Post subject:

Knowing all of the states isn't difficult.
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In Loving Memory
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pjp · Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:19 pm Post subject:

I prefer this view:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/EVP_average.html
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lolgov. 'cause where we're going, you don't have civil liberties.

In Loving Memory
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BoneKracker · Veteran Joined: 14 Mar 2006 Posts: 1487 Location: U.S.A.

realclearpolitics shows the electoral gap narrowing, Obama ahead by only 1% in popular vote, and Obama sliding into negative territory again in overall job approval. The impact of most recent events aren't reflected in polls yet (e.g., "you didn't build dat").
http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

My bottom line: it's so close it all depends on what happens between now and November.
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notageek · Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:13 am Post subject:

You see 10 maps and they will all tell you different information.
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pjp · Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:49 am Post subject:

notageek · Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 6:02 am Post subject:

No, you misunderstand.

What I'm saying is, you see 10 maps and they will all tell you different, instead, just focus on one. AST's electoral-vote. Because he's the grandfather of Linux.
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pjp · Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 6:12 am Post subject:

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lolgov. 'cause where we're going, you don't have civil liberties.

In Loving Memory
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notageek · Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:23 am Post subject:

Bump.

Nothing seems to be happening.
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