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Who Will Win the U.S. General Election on Tuesday?
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Who will win the U.S. general election on Tuesday?
Definitely Obama
18%
 18%  [ 6 ]
Probably Obama
46%
 46%  [ 15 ]
Unsure
12%
 12%  [ 4 ]
Probably Romney
9%
 9%  [ 3 ]
Definitely Romney
9%
 9%  [ 3 ]
Contested
3%
 3%  [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 32

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wswartzendruber
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:53 am    Post subject: Who Will Win the U.S. General Election on Tuesday? Reply with quote

I'm unsure, myself.
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McGruff
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 1:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obama has maintained a decisive lead in electoral college votes throughout the campaign (according to Nate Silver). The bookies seem to agree. Fox and the Romney team are desperate to convince people they have "momentum" but it's just not happening. Obama even seems to be getting a small bounce after Sandy.

PS: I'm betting avatars on an Obama win with anyone who wants to take it. For three months the loser has to display an avatar of the winner's choosing.


Last edited by McGruff on Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:01 am; edited 1 time in total
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wswartzendruber
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So would you say that Obama is definitely going to win?
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McGruff
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think so, yes.
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pjp
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Regardless of the winner, the US loses. The loss is simply greater if Obama is reelected.
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Old School
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Romney with a 6 pt. popular victory nationally, and an electoral landslide. Romney will win in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa. Obama will take the commie Northeast and Left Coast.
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wswartzendruber
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

FUCK!!! Obama's gonna win this one. There's a 94% correlation between the Redskins winning their last home game before the election and the incumbent party keeping the White House. The Redskins are gonna play the Panthers, and there's no way the Redskins are going to lose.
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McGruff
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old School wrote:
Romney with a 6 pt. popular victory nationally, and an electoral landslide. Romney will win in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa. Obama will take the commie Northeast and Left Coast.


So you gonna take the bet..?
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pjp
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old School wrote:
Romney with a 6 pt. popular victory nationally, and an electoral landslide. Romney will win in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa. Obama will take the commie Northeast and Left Coast.
Landslide seems overly optimistic.

But looking at a timezone breakdown of the states which will decide the outcome (bold seem questionable):

Eastern: FL, NH, OH, PA, VA
Central: IA, MN, WI
Mountain: CO
Pacific: NV

206: Starting with what seems likely.
251: + FL (29) & VA (13). IMO, if he doesn't win these, he's done.
269: + OH (18)
289: + PA (20)

Given that those are all eastern, we'll likely know early what happens. If he wins OH but not PA, he'll likely still win with CO. Though CO has seen a lot of ex-pats from California, so its possible the state has gone over the deep end. Also IMO, Central doesn't seem likely, nor Pacific.
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sikpuppy
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No "Don't care" option. Or, indeed, "Who's Romney, is he an animorphological sheep, do people vote for animals in your elections, if so I choose to vote for the girly warewolf in Teen Wolf, the one with the big tits.".
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pjp
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sikpuppy wrote:
No "Don't care" option.
That option was provided by not having to participate at all. So, "don't care" is obviously inaccurate.
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sikpuppy
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
sikpuppy wrote:
No "Don't care" option.
That option was provided by not having to participate at all. So, "don't care" is obviously inaccurate.

No, I really don't care. Perfectly accurate :P
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tylerwylie
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 5:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

More people vote for nobody than anyone else. Nobody wins.
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notageek
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 5:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank you for your insight.
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McGruff
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 6:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Two people voted "definitely Romney". If you really meant that why not take the bet?
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notageek
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 8:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What's interesting is, nobody is voting for "Probably Romney."
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marens
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://forums.gentoo.org/viewtopic-p-6919032-highlight-.html#6919032 as written in january in a thread about "Winner of the Iowa Carcass"

Deutschlandfunk wrote:

Bla bla bla Romney bla bla Obama will stay anyway bla bla

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juniper
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcgruff wrote:
Old School wrote:
Romney with a 6 pt. popular victory nationally, and an electoral landslide. Romney will win in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa. Obama will take the commie Northeast and Left Coast.


So you gonna take the bet..?


bet, bet, bet, bet, bet, bet!!!
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sikpuppy
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Buk buk buk bwork.
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juniper
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i pick probably obama.
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Old School
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcgruff wrote:
Old School wrote:
Romney with a 6 pt. popular victory nationally, and an electoral landslide. Romney will win in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa. Obama will take the commie Northeast and Left Coast.


So you gonna take the bet..?

Yeah, I'll take you up on the bet. :)
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Prenj
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Goldman Sachs.
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McGruff
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 1:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I salute your bravery :)
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BonezTheGoon
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wswartzendruber wrote:
FUCK!!! Obama's gonna win this one. There's a 94% correlation between the Redskins winning their last home game before the election and the incumbent party keeping the White House. The Redskins are gonna play the Panthers, and there's no way the Redskins are going to lose.


See this.
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pjp wrote:
The greater evil is voting for the "lesser evil."
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Muso
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BonezTheGoon wrote:
wswartzendruber wrote:
FUCK!!! Obama's gonna win this one. There's a 94% correlation between the Redskins winning their last home game before the election and the incumbent party keeping the White House. The Redskins are gonna play the Panthers, and there's no way the Redskins are going to lose.


See this.


:lol:

Another : REPUBLICANS HAVE WON EVERY NOVEMBER 6TH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SINCE 1860

Quote:
1860 - Abraham Lincoln over Stephen Douglas
1888 - Benjamin Harrison over incumbent Grover Cleveland
1900 - William McKinley over William Jennings Bryan
1928 - Herbert Hoover over Al Smith
1956 - Dwight Eisenhower over Adlai Stevenson
1984 - Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale

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